Form Analysis by Ryan Phelan
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: AMERICAN MICHI (11) has displayed talent over his lightly raced career, winning on debut at Melton when coming from back in the field and proving too strong. He resumed in a high-quality form race and was very strong to the line last time after missing the start and making up good ground. If he brings his manners, this field looks suitable and, with the draw, the extra distance is in his favour.
SASSY GABBY (2) was well supported first-up where she led, handed up and seemed to have every chance. She gets a good map again and with more fitness will take catching. GINGER ELLA (9) has a good record at this track, and although she has an awkward draw, drops back to an easier grade. She’s been racing well against tougher opposition and in her win back in June she beat a couple of handy ones. HANCOCKS HERO (3) is open to improvement returning to the front row and raced tough to win in a lower grade four back, but this doesn’t present much harder. Of the others, POSTER PERFECT (5) was better last time when narrowly beaten, and the stable strikes well at their home track, but the map looks a little tricky. ALPHA CHARLOTTE (6) won her only career start, but I’m not sure she gets the same map and is likely to need this run.
SELECTIONS: AMERICAN MICHI (11), SASSY GABBY (2), GINGER ELLA (9), HANCOCKS HERO (3)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: Very tricky affair, with the majority of these not coming in off good performances at their last start. MYNAMEISRUBY (10) is one of those, finishing last, albeit from a wide draw and up in class. She was a winner prior when she was able to lead from the pole. Her best form is at this track, she gets the best driver, and that’s enough to be in her corner despite the draw.
OLLY ODD POTTS (5) can be hard to catch. She was able to go back-to-back in April but hasn’t run a place in eleven starts since. She has good gate speed, and if she can get into a handy position, she’s worth keeping safe if she finds her best. DREAMTIME NALA (8) beat a similar field four runs back but hasn’t delivered the same quality since. She never ran on at all last Wednesday at Melton, but the soft draw here can see her atone. NORTHERN TERROR (7) can run a good race at times, although his last two have been far from ideal. His best is better than most of these, so he warrants consideration despite the wide draw. You could make a case for THE IRISHMAN (2), BERYLS BOOTS (3) and FOUR STARZZ RUBY (4) with the right runs, but again their form is questionable.
SELECTIONS: MYNAMEISRUBY (10), OLLY ODD POTTS (5), DREAMTIME NALA (8), NORTHERN TERROR (7)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: BAY OF FIRES (5) backed up his solid trials, proving most impressive when winning on debut in good time. He showed good gate speed to overcome his main rival in betting and beat the rest by a space. There’s no reason why he can’t cross to the pegs again from a similar draw, and this race doesn’t present as overly strong for him to repeat the dose and continue on his winning way.
HEAVENLY FLYER (4) has proven a most consistent filly this campaign, only missing a place once in seven attempts, and was rewarded with victory last time out. She looks to get a nice map, sliding across inside the top pick to find a good position. FULL CRUNCH AHEAD (3) was good in his runs last campaign, but in his trials since he hasn’t appeared to pack the same punch. He could be open to sharp improvement under race conditions. DALLASCOWBOY (8) won on debut in decent fashion and couldn’t overcome a bad draw when resuming this preparation in a dash home. He has a sticky draw to overcome but is worth keeping safe.
BACK: BAY OF FIRES (5) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: BAY OF FIRES (5), HEAVENLY FLYER (4), FULL CRUNCH AHEAD (3), DALLASCOWBOY (8)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: CHAMPAGNES (6) has proven form against this grade and under these concession driver conditions. When she’s in form and trotting well, she normally continues that run, and the fact Hannah Parish is familiar with her, with two wins from four drives, is a positive.
LOVE WHO (4) is a last-start winner when able to lead and take cover, but the time was quite slow. Grace Bilney has experience on her, which is a plus. MONTANA MUSCLE (5) is second-up here from a break and didn’t have the right set-up to feature last time. He was a winner last preparation at Bendigo, beating a better field, so with added fitness can improve. BETSY ANNE (3) was going better a couple of months back, so it’s hard to know where she’s at, but she gets a soft draw and has better form than most here.
BACK: CHAMPAGNES (6) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: CHAMPAGNES (6), LOVE WHO (4), MONTANA MUSCLE (5), BETSY ANNE (3)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: AUSSIE JAY MAC (3) has only had the one career win from 17 attempts, but that’s not a true indication of his ability, often being let down by his manners. He came through the Graduation Series, running second to the very smart The Last Trip two runs back, then got into the right spot in the final, only to race roughly mid-race and throw away his chance. He may be a handful under concession conditions, but his ability is better than most.
IAMAWINGATE (1) gets his best draw in a while to get a perfect run, likely behind the leader here from the pole. Even though he rises in ratings, this looks suitable on the form lines he brings into this and he’s a serious winning chance. MONSIEUR FLAMEL (6) is a go-forward type suited over the short trip. He was able to lead from a wide draw last time and improved his form, so even though the map is uncertain he’s heading in the right direction. TALISKER SKIPPER (5) has been much better down in grade his past couple, overcoming back-row draws on those occasions. He can most likely get cover here and be in the mix with the right tempo.
SELECTIONS: AUSSIE JAY MAC (3), IAMAWINGATE (1), MONSIEUR FLAMEL (6), TALISKER SKIPPER (5)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: ARE WESLEY (3) was shaping up to win a better-quality race at Melton last time out before breaking at about the 300m mark and losing all chance. That followed a strong performance when sitting parked in solid time at Ballarat. The concession claim brings her in well, the map looks favourable, and she looks hard to beat.
CLIVES GIRL (2) is always solid in the market, but she just struggles to win and is often in the placings. This race does look to suit again and with the good draw she’s certain to get an economical trip and her chance. SMOKING SHANNON (5) has her first run for the new stable off no trial, but this trainer/driver combination strikes well, so she’s a market watch and must be kept safe. WINGATE GUY (6) gets no favours from the draw but is often thereabouts in this grade. He’ll be giving the others a start, but he’ll be working home well late if they happen to overdo things at the top end.
BACK: ARE WESLEY (3) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: ARE WESLEY (3), CLIVES GIRL (2), SMOKING SHANNON (5), WINGATE GUY (6)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: DELIGHTFUL REYNA (5) has shown some positive signs against some smart 2yos in her four-start career, the best of those a second last time out at Melton. She’s mixed her gait at various times and gives away maturity and experience, but from the astute stable she has to be considered.
SO SKEPTICAL (2) makes her debut here and local trainer Lisa Pitt has made a habit over the past month of progressing these from the trials to win under race conditions. The most recent trial against more seasoned types was okay, and this looks to be a suitable assignment to kick things off. WAR DAN PHOENIX (3) is on the back-up from Sunday night at Cranbourne. He’s still a maiden in 18 attempts but he’s shown some glimpses that he’s getting closer to a win. He has good gate speed to lob into a nice position. SUMMER KISS (1) is a former Sydneysider whose former stable has no doubt conditioned her well, and although her form doesn’t look flash, it has been in decent 2yo company, so she’s worth keeping safe.
BACK: DELIGHTFUL REYNA (5) – 1.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: DELIGHTFUL REYNA (5), SO SKEPTICAL (2), WAR DAN PHOENIX (3), SUMMER KISS (1)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: A 2yo maiden with no exposed form, so we are completely going on what’s been seen at the trials. KONSTAS (1) has shown nice ability in his two outings at the trials, in both taking on older horses. He hasn’t shown brilliant gate speed so may be driven with cover, but the way he’s found the line suggests he can put down sectionals good enough to win this.
ALTO CORAGGIO (2) certainly is a good-looking son of Ride High, and from the pole in his trial showed good enough gate speed and tractability. He did have to be pushed to the line. The Lisa Pitt stable is flying at this track and producing several youngsters to win first-up, so on that alone he’s a strong winning chance. IM A ROCKSTAR (3) was in the same trial, settled back in the field and found the line quite well. He’s a stablemate to the top pick, and the stable strikes well, particularly here at their home track. POSTMAN JOEY (5) showed good gate speed in his outing at Melton and was keen to hold the lead there, only knocking up in the last 100m. They seem to be the only winning hopes based on what’s been seen at the trials, and more specifically the winner should come from the top two picks.
BACK: KONSTAS (1) – 1.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: KONSTAS (1), ALTO CORAGGIO (2), IM A ROCKSTAR (3), POSTMAN JOEY (5)
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licenced bookmaker.
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