Form Analysis by Ryan Phelan
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: LONGTAN VIPER (8) has been flying this preparation and was rewarded for his consistency, winning the Warragul Cup heat and final earlier this month. Forget his last run, as he was way up in class. He’s proven to be a versatile type as far as racing pattern goes and looks to map well drawn behind a quick beginner who normally likes to hold the lead. He’ll get his shot at the passing lane.
LINE DANCE (1) has drawn perfectly to utilise his good gate speed and has been racing well, often meeting with good market support, particularly when he can race at the front end. He beat the top pick three runs back and will take some catching. KING SAINT (7) is in terrific form and, despite the draw, has no issue doing work in his races. He’ll have to earn it, but he’s racing in great heart. HELLOVATIME (2) is the stablemate to the top pick and is also racing well. He maps softly from the draw and, if they happen to overdo things, he can be strong late.
BACK: LONGTAN VIPER (8) – 1.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: LONGTAN VIPER (8), LINE DANCE (1), KING SAINT (7), HELLOVATIME (2)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: DELIGHTFUL MIKI (2) is an interesting runner, resuming here for the first time this year after performing against the top 3yos last season and racing well considering she never had much luck with barrier draws. She had a good trial win at Bendigo in preparation for this and, from the draw, can press forward and get into a nice position. She won her maiden at this track leading all the way.
FLIGHT LOUTENANT (3) is worth another chance after having no luck last week, being kept wide when making a mid-race move and working overtime on a good tempo. His maiden win prior, at his first run for the new camp, was very good, and the favourable draw means he can race in a forward position. Expect him to bounce back. MAJOR EASTWOOD (7) was a very good and deserved winner here last week on the back of some eye-catching runs. He goes from the pole to outside the front row, which hurts, but his form is hard to ignore. CRIPPA (9) is a 2yo taking on older horses, and normally it’s easy to dismiss these types as winning hopes, but his times and apparent ability make him a runner of interest.
SELECTIONS: DELIGHTFUL MIKI (2), FLIGHT LOUTENANT (3), MAJOR EASTWOOD (7), CRIPPA (9)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: IAMAWINGATE (7) makes a habit of running his best races when he drops back to this ratings band, as evidenced five starts back when he won from the same draw, track and trip, coming from last and proving too strong. If he gets the right tempo, he’ll be storming home again.
ARRAPS (5) will likely be stamped urgent at the start here and looking for the front, where he races best. It’s encouraging that even though he didn’t get the top spot last time out, he was tough sitting parked and stuck on well. MYNAMEISRUBY (1) will use her gate speed from this draw and attempt to get to the front. She’s always thereabouts but doesn’t win out of turn. WHERES WOOD WOOD (3) will find this set-up more to his liking. They went a bit quick for him last time and he had tough draws to overcome prior. He has a top driver aboard to give him every hope.
BACK: IAMAWINGATE (7) – 1.5 unit (win)
SELECTIONS: IAMAWINGATE (7), ARRAPS (5), MYNAMEISRUBY (1), WHERES WOOD WOOD (3)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: THE TRAWLER (6) really caught the eye here last week when resuming from a break. He attempted to make a mid-race move which came unstuck, went back, then came again at the end, taking good ground off the winner who’s in good form. He will come on in fitness from that, can press forward at the start, and this race presents as a more winnable option.
MY ULTIMATE MATEO (8) has been sneaky good at his past couple of runs. He was held up at a vital stage two starts back, finding the line well when clear, and last time out was kept wide whilst making a mid-race move and was entitled to knock up despite being favourite. He trails behind a good beginner to map well and take his shot via the passing lane. ELLIANA (1) gets her best draw and set-up to improve on some recent close-up efforts. She’s been finding the line well in decent closing sectionals and the pole draw helps. HEAVENLY FLYER (4) has been racing consistently this preparation from similar draws, but in fairness she’s had every chance in those races. She will map well again, so needs to be considered.
BACK: THE TRAWLER (6) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: THE TRAWLER (6), MY ULTIMATE MATEO (8), ELLIANA (1), HEAVENLY FLYER (4)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: EAGLE MAJOR (3) has been racing honestly this preparation, only missing a place three times in 10 attempts, and one of those was last start where he had plenty of excuses. He was a winner prior to that when well supported over the short trip and leading all the way. He’s a tough type who will likely try to wrestle away the lead here over the middle trip and take plenty of catching.
MADAM REACTOR (2) is a quick beginner and led from a wider draw to win two starts ago in easier company. Although she can be a little hard to catch, it’s encouraging she’s been more consistent over the past month or so. She will be in it for a long way. MASTER MIKI (5) was a winner two runs back at Wagga in easier company, but her last half was quite strong there. She was ok last time, and this looks a suitable assignment. AMERICAN HAMMER (8) improved for the new stable to win last time out at Wagga at decent odds. He did have a good time of it in front, but on the ratings scale gets in well with his claiming price, so keep him safe.
SELECTIONS: EAGLE MAJOR (3), MADAM REACTOR (2), MASTER MIKI (5), AMERICAN HAMMER (8)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: LATHER IN GOLD (4) is another who has looked good at the trials, but in her two races she has run into arguably the best 2yo filly in the state. She has good early gate speed to press forward and look for the lead. She has displayed good manners, which will carry her a long way and look for sharp form improvement.
BOSSALINI (2) is having her first start, as are many other 2yo debutantes here. She looked smart in a recent trial at Bendigo where they ran a decent time and she came off the speed for an effortless win. She draws to map well here for a high-striking trainer-driver combination. Any betting moves in her favour only add confidence.
MUDDY (7) has been around both of those fillies at the trials and has run well. He has a tough draw to overcome here but needs to be kept safe. SPECIALS POSTER (6) changes to a strong stable and was safely held in two races at Menangle but that was in very strong grade. He’s a market watch.
BACK: LATHER IN GOLD (4) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: LATHER IN GOLD (4), BOSSALINI (2), MUDDY (7), JASPER JAY (5)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: WINGATE GUY (1) finds the right class and gate to bounce back into winning form here. He’s been racing well, but things just haven’t worked out for him for some time. Now this race sets up with no excuses. He can show speed and has options from the draw, he likes the track, and the claim with an in-form driver is in his favour.
WHATS GLENDA GOT (2) has improved at her past few runs, finding the line well or not having much luck. She maps to get a soft run and can work home well late with the right tempo. ELLEEGANT LANE (3) had all the favours to win last time, but it was reward for racing quite well prior. She has options from the draw and has claims. TASMA FLASH (7) is a last-start winner when able to work into the race with a good trail in a moderate last half. This race doesn’t look much harder, but she has a sticky draw to contend with.
BACK: WINGATE GUY (1) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: WINGATE GUY (1), WHATS GLENDA GOT (2), ELLEEGANT LANE (3), TASMA FLASH (7)
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