Form Analysis by Craig Rail

Race 1:

 

OVERVIEW: FINAL BOW (6) worked hard early before taking cover and battled late when eighth at Bendigo last week. This race is easier and she was an impressive winner at Geelong two starts ago so she is worth another chance. TOPHUT JOHNY (7) continues to build on a consistent record against similar grade and he was the widest runner on the home turn when he finished off fast for second behind FINAL BOW (6) at Geelong on October 17. He is widely drawn but looms as one of the leading chances again. SHAQ (10) was headed off from the pole position, trailed the leader and used the sprint lane when a close up third behind Byrneside Boom in fast time at Bendigo last outing. He is a tough type and appears to be well graded against this line up. METRO MEMORY (8) stormed home along the sprint lane to win at Melton two starts ago then followed with a handy finishing third in a mile rate of 1.55.2 at Shepparton. He is likely to be shuffled back on the markers from the awkward trailing draw but is worth an investment.

 

EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely early leader), 6,7

SELECTIONS: FINAL BOW (6), TOPHUT JOHNY (7), SHAQ (10), METRO MEMORY (8)

RATINGS: 6,7/ 10/ 8/ 9,11

SUGGESTED BET: FINAL BOW (6) each way

 

Race 2:

 

OVERVIEW: CHAINSMOKE (2) is returning from a Tasmanian campaign and couldn’t have been more impressive at his latest Bendigo trial victory, where he sprinted brilliantly over the final 300m. WHERE IS WOODY (8) has the perfect trailing draw behind the fast beginner MADAM REACTOR (1) and possesses a powerful finishing burst so he is worth an investment. MADAM REACTOR (1) has enough early speed to hold the lead and was able to score impressively after working on the outside of the leader throughout at Shepparton on September 23. She worked hard in the early stages and had excuses at her latest eighth so she is worth thought from the pole position. BLAZIN BY (7) has been freshened since his latest fourth at Cranbourne in August and was a good trial winner last week, where he dashed home in a slick last half. He is widely drawn but has the ability to feature prominently.

 

 

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 6,7

SELECTIONS: CHAINSMOKE (2), WHERE IS WOODY (8), MADAM REACTOR (1), BLAZIN BY (7)

RATINGS: 2/ 1,8/ 7/ 3,4/ 5/ 10

SUGGESTED BET: CHAINSMOKE (2) each way

 

Race 3:

 

OVERVIEW: SEASIDE BOY (10) is a nicely bred colt for trainer Emma Stewart that is making his debut. He dashed well clear to win a trial by over twenty metres in fast time at Melton two weeks ago so he is likely to be well supported. SCOOTER LOU (5) was performing very well at the trials prior to a strong second on debut, where he worked hard early to find the lead and was run down on the line. He is a promising colt, which should make his presence felt. DRAW THE CURTAIN (8) was confidently supported at his debut performance and attempted to lead throughout when second in a mile rate of 1.55.8. His trial form prior was sound so he is worth thought again. LUNA ROSSA (2) came from last when an impressive trial winner at Geelong last week and SNACK LOVER (3), a debutante for trainer Mattew Craven, finished a close up third at his latest Terang trial effort.

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely early leader), 5,7

SELECTIONS: SEASIDE BOY (10), SCOOTER LOU (5), DRAW THE CURTAIN (8), LUNA ROSSA (2)

RATINGS: 10/ 5,8/ 2,3/ 1,7

SUGGESTED BET: SEASIDE BOY (10) to win

 

Race 4:

 

OVERVIEW: MOST EXCITING (4) followed a runaway trial victory at Melton with a brave third in the Shakamaker Classic at his debut performance on Victoria Cup night. This race is much easier and he is clearly the horse to beat. KING JIMMY (7) showed good gate speed to lead then took cover when second behind Waysam at a Shepparton trial effort last week. He is widely drawn but looks to have some ability and is not without a chance. INTERESTINME (2) finished fourth in the same trial after coming from last of the six runners and is worth a place ticket. MEZZANOTTI (1) is first up since a debut third at Shepparton in August. She hasn’t been to the trials recently but she is ideally drawn so she must be considered in multiple combinations.

 

EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 1,6,7

SELECTIONS: MOST EXCITING (4), KING JIMMY (7), INTERESTINME (2), MEZZANOTTI (1)

RATINGS: 4/ 7/ 1,2/ 9

SUGGESTED BET: MOST EXCITING (4) to win

 

Race 5:

 

OVERVIEW: CARRAMAR TITMUS (10) finished off strongly for an eye-catching second at Ballarat on September 18. She wasn’t disgraced in the Victoria Oaks series, where fifth in a heat and ninth in the Final so she should prove very hard to beat against this line up. LOU EASYANA (3) was making her debut for trainer Matthew Craven when she was held up for a run at a vital stage and finished off nicely for fourth behind Shifu at Terang. She is not without a chance from her good draw. REDBANK MOLLY (6) was placed six times in succession (2 wins) prior to a fifth behind Direct Command in a stronger race at Bendigo last week. She should be competitive against this line up. EMJAY JAZZ (9) trailed forward behind the eventual winner Fair Chance and appeared to have her opportunity last week but her overall form is sound and she is worth a ticket each way.

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 4,6

SELECTIONS: CARRAMAR TITMUS (10), LOU EASYANA (3), REDBANK MOLLY (6), EMJAY JAZZ (9)

RATINGS: 10/ 3,6/ 9/ 4/ 1,2

SUGGESTED BET: CARRAMAR TITMUS (10) to win

 

Race 6:

 

OVERVIEW: OUT TO STAY (6) is a very promising juvenile colt taking on older horses. He worked hard and did extremely well when second behind Moonlight Moth (1.52.3!) in the Premiere Stakes then followed with a fifth in the Shakamaker Classic. SOHO PLAYGIRL (3) began quickly from the outside of the front line but was left stranded without cover when a brave third at Shepparton last week. She led throughout to win prior and will take catching if she can find the lead here. HEAVENS GIFT (2) is a brilliant beginner and did lead throughout at a Bendigo victory on May 21. She hasn’t raced since July so there is a chance she will take cover behind SOHO PLAYGIRL (3) in this event but she does have the necessary pace to be able to utilize the passing lane. LOVE A BELLE (1) should gain an economical run on the markers while YNOBE NOVA (4), ROCKNROLL WILLOW (5) and ASSIGNED (7) have all been impressive recently.

 

EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 2,4

SELECTIONS: OUT TO STAY (6), SOHO PLAYGIRL (3), HEAVENS GIFT (2), LOVE A BELLE (1)

RATINGS: 6/ 3/ 1,2,5/ 4,7/ FIELD

SUGGESTED BET: OUT TO STAY (6) to win

 

Race 7:

 

OVERVIEW: WICKED WIZARD (1) had no clear run and appeared to have plenty in reserve when a very unlucky sixth (7m) behind Major Bye at Bendigo then endured a tough trip when second behind The Postmaster in a slick mile rate of 1.54.2 at Shepparton last outing. He has returned from a break in great form and deserves to break through for a win. SEVENTH IMMORTAL (6) left a trailing position to move up without cover when a distant second behind Let’s Go Lorna at Bendigo on Wednesday night. This race is no harder and he should give another forward showing. KUALIGHT (7) was driven aggressively in the early stages to find the lead and fought on reasonably well at the end when second at Swan Hill. She is widely drawn but should continue to improve with the benefit of experience. WHIRILY MAURZ (2) is resuming since August but she should gain an economical run from her good draw and is worth a place ticket.

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible leader), 2,6,7

SELECTIONS: WICKED WIZARD (1), SEVENTH IMMORTAL (6), KUALIGHT (7), WHIRILY MAURZ (2)

RATINGS: 1/ 6/ 7/ 2/ 4,8

SUGGESTED BET: WICKED WIZARD (1) to win

 

Race 8:

 

OVERVIEW: MAJOR CORBIE (1) is a first starter for trainer Lisa Pitt, which stormed home late for an eye-catching fourth at a Shepparton trial performance on Thursday and is drawn to go well. The Emma Stewart prepared debutante BEACH DANCER (3) will attract plenty of support and finished fourth behind Platinum Jive in fast time at a recent Melton trial performance. MY MATE ACE (6) and MY MACHETE (5) finished second and third respectively in the same trial as MAJOR CORBIE (1) on Thursday night and are not without a chance. LIGHT UP THE SKY (2) raced on the outside of the leader and battled into a distant third at Swan Hill last outing. She is a place chance from her good draw.

 

EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 1,2

SELECTIONS: MAJOR CORBIE (1), BEACH DANCER (3), MY MATE ACE (6), LIGHT UP THE SKY (2)

RATINGS: 1,3/ 6/ 2,5/ 4/ 8/ 7

SUGGESTED BET: MAJOR CORBIE (1) to win

 

Race 9:

 

OVERVIEW: It might be a small field to end the program but it is the best race of the night. VIOLET STANFORD (2) has the barrier draw advantage over her main rivals and chased determinedly for a narrow second behind I’m Bobby in a sizzling mile rate of 1.54.8 at her latest attempt so she gets the nod. DEREK THE JET (6) won at his first nine attempts and has taken on the best trotters in Australasia at his two attempts back from a long spell. He didn’t have much luck behind the champion mare Keayang Zahara last week and will appreciate a massive drop back in class for this assignment. REMUS PHOENIX (5) never travelled well in the run and eventually galloped approaching the home turn at Melton last outing. His Metropolitan efforts were sound prior including victories in mile rates of 1.56.6 and 1.57.0 so he cannot be underestimated. MEGA SPUR (1) finished strongly from a rearward position when she scored at Melton two starts ago then finished fourth behind Keayang Zahara last week so she is not without a chance from the pole position.

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 1,4,6

SELECTIONS: VIOLET STANFORD (2), DEREK THE JET (6), REMUS PHOENIX (5), MEGA SPUR (1)

RATINGS: 2,6/ 5/ 1/ 4/ 3

SUGGESTED BET: VIOLET STANFORD (2) to win