Form Analysis by Will Norman
Race 1
POST LAZARUS (5) hasn’t been seen for 5 weeks but looks to strike a winnable race here. Has trialled up well at Carrick since his last run at Hobart. On that occasion, he made an error early in the race and lost plenty of ground before hitting the line strongly out wide. He was a runner up to the handy Photo First at his previous start. NIKITA JO (2) produced her best run this preparation last week at Hobart where she made considerable ground in the home straight from a long way back. Draws to settle closer to the speed today. FRANCO VAI (8) was a nice winner 1st up here when leading throughout before sustaining a bad flat tyre last start. He can be an improver today. LUVTHAT (7) was runner up to Preparation last start after leading. The draw makes it tougher but with the right trip could be competitive.
Selections – POST LAZARUS (5), NIKITA JO (2), FRANCO VAI (8), LUVTHAT (7)
Race 2
Small but strong field for the Free For All. STAR MAJOR (6) was an enormous run in the Show Cup last Sunday after receiving bad interference early in the race, he finished off the race very strongly to finish 3rd. The small field will enable him to work forward at some point and be hard to beat. ONE BIG SHEW (1) is racing better than his numerical form suggests. No luck at all behind Star Major 2 starts back before striking interference as well in the Show Cup and chased very well. He draws to have a nice trip today. VANQUISH STRIDE (3) didn’t have things go his way either in the Show Cup and was a strong winner. He is racing in consistent form and the small field should suit. KEAYANG FITZY (5) will likely head forward early and is never far away.
Selections – STAR MAJOR (6), ONE BIG SHEW (1), VANQUISH STRIDE (3), KEAYANG FITZY (5)
Race 3
ROCK ON PLAYBOY (10) was terrific last start behind Hay Miki. Held up into the straight, he charged home when he saw clear running to finish a close-up second. He is racing in very consistent form and I think he will be hard to hold out today. MISS CRUNCHY (3) is an interesting runner having her first local start. She was 3rd in a fast mile rate at Albion Park two starts back and if she was able to repeat that performance would be right in the mix here. NORBET (1) was forced to go back to near last on his return 1st up from the poor draw before hitting the line ok. He should be an improver today from the pole draw and with extra fitness on his side. NO NUKES SKIPPER (9) ran into the in-form Arma Rolling Stone last start and this looks an easier assignment today. He hasn’t been too far away in stronger races over the last month.
Selections – ROCK ON PLAYBOY (10), MISS CRUNCHY (3), NORBET (1), NO NUKES SKIPPER (9),
Race 4
HARRYS DEAL (1) will have to muster early to hold a forward position, but I think he looks hard to beat if he is able to hold a forward position. A good effort here last week after working in the breeze throughout before finishing second to Smooth Reason. WAZZA (8) will need some luck from his draw but was very good on his return to the track after over 2 months off. Racing outside lead, he fought on strongly to be run down by Unmatched who had the nice trail on his back throughout. GYPSY AMOUR (5) could be an improver from her front row draw tonight. Settling a long way back last start, she hit the line ok. She does possess good gate speed to race in a forward position here. THE VIXEN (7) has to overcome a tough gate today but had little luck last start behind Smooth Reason when not seeing much clear room in the straight.
Selections – HARRYS DEAL (1), WAZZA (8), GYPSY AMOUR (5), THE VIXEN (7)
Race 5
A good field assembled here for the Wayne Rattray Two Year Classic. LIKEYOUFORAREASON (3) was an impressive debut winner in good time here 3 weeks ago. He displayed good gate speed on that occasion so expecting him to race near speed here and be hard to beat again. BRIDWOOD MAISEY (2) was narrowly run down on debut by LIKEYOUFORAREASON after looking the winner at multiple stages. She was a little green but think she should have taken good improvement from that effort and that would make her hard to beat today from the nice draw. ALWAYS BETTOR (6) hasn’t been seen for just over 2 months but displayed good ability in both runs to date. Forced to do work in the run last start, he battled away well to finish only 6 metres from RAINBOW RANGER (7) who was impressive on that occasion and has trialled well at Carrick leading into today’s race.
Selections – LIKEYOUFORAREASON (3), BRIDWOOD MAISEY (2), ALWAYS BETTOR (6), RAINBOW RANGER (7)
Race 6
THE CHANCER (10) found the line strongly behind Another Nien here last Sunday in a 70-79 rated race. He drops back in grade today following the claim for Tiarna Ford and he should be able to track through well from his back row draw. BARBARY TALES (5) is a promising 3yo filly who is building an impressive record with 5 wins from 10 starts. She has displayed good versatility in her career to date. DRESSED IN GOLD (3) was extremely consistent finishing top 2 in his previous 5 starts before last start. A good beginner, he should be able to push forward early. SUGARPOVA (1) draws to get a soft run in transit and drops right back in grade here after contesting the Show Cup last week.
Selections – THE CHANCER (10), BARBARY TALES (5), DRESSED IN GOLD (3), SUGARPOVA (1)
Race 7
Found this race very tricky to assess. MONTGOMERY BURNS (1) was able to break through for his 1st win of the year last week at Hobart. The claim for Tiarna Ford enables him to stay in a similar grade today and from the pole draw, should get every chance. SMOKESCREEN (2) enjoyed a nice trip last week when winning over the longer distance. Well graded following the claim for Kayleb Williams, he will be dangerous if he can hold a forward position. DIDYALOUSAROOSTA (8) will require some luck from his inside back row draw but was a good 2nd to the unbeaten Medina at Hobart last start. He has been very consistent since resuming from a long spell. TAMBROS TILLY (4) chased Sabine strongly last Sunday and was able to comfortably beat 3rd in the process. She is a mare racing in good form.
Selections – MONTGOMERY BURNS (1), SMOKESCREEN (2), DIDYALOUSAROOSTA (8), TAMBROS TILLY (4)
Race 8
Interesting contest to finish the day with a couple of newcomers to the state likely to create interest. LOUTENTANT (8) was luckless last start when taken back through the field by a tiring runner. I thought he found the line well considering the interference. He draws to get a soft run today over the longer trip and might be dangerous late with even luck. MY WAY (1) has his 1st local run for Wayne Yole and has been very consistent at Cranbourne in recent starts. BUSLOAD OF FAITH (7) was 4th in fast time at Ballarat last start. A tough draw to overcome on his local debut, he still looks a contender here on his best form. UNMATCHED (6) was 6 weeks between runs last start and was still able to score in comfortable fashion. With further improvement today, he looks to be a good chance.
Selections – LOUTENANT (8), MY WAY (1), BUSLOAD OF FAITH (7), UNMATCHED (6)
