Form Analysis by Craig Rail

Race 1:

 

OVERVIEW: NAKULA (10) will appreciate a big drop back in class for this assignment and should make her presence felt. She recorded a slick mile of 1.54.8 when she won at Melton three starts ago. GO WITHOUT (4) was resuming since November when he scored comfortably at Menangle. He is very inexperienced compared to his rivals but he is a smart pacer and should give another bold showing. KWICK SAND (3) is a fast beginner and was runner up behind Tough Shaz in a sizzling mile rate of 1.53.2 when resuming since September. He is drawn to be prominent throughout. HEAVENLY BRIGADE (5), SHE REALLY MATTERS (6) and MARTY THE MARTIAN (9) all have claims in a strong race to commence the program.

 

EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible leader), 1,2,4,7

SELECTIONS: NAKULA (10), GO WITHOUT (4), KWICK SAND (3), MARTY THE MARTIAN (9)

RATINGS: 4,10/ 3/ 5,6,9

SUGGESTED BET: NAKULA (10) each way

 

Race 2:

 

OVERVIEW: CRIME WRITER (4) has been racing against much better opposition in recent weeks and gets his chance to break through for a win. He finished fourth behind Triple Eight and Tango Tara in two open class events then finished fifth behind The Narcissist (won again since) at Hamilton. CORAVALLY STAR (10) was driven aggressively from a wide draw and went down fighting when a game second at Maryborough last outing. He recorded a slick mile rate of 1.54.1 when he won at Melton three starts ago and looms as one of the leading chances again. YOUNGGIFTEDANDBLACK (9) is a strong mare that is racing better than her form reads. She took on a field of very good mares when unplaced at Melton last week. FIRST DANCE (8) is awkwardly drawn but she possesses a powerful finishing burst and cannot be left out of calculations.

 

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible early leader), 4

SELECTIONS: CRIME WRITER (4), CORAVALLY STAR (10), YOUNGGIFTEDANDBLACK (9), FIRST DANCE (8)

RATINGS: 4/ 10/ 8,9/ 1,2,7

SUGGESTED BET: CRIME WRITER (4) each way

 

Race 3:

 

OVERVIEW: ATA RANGI (8) is awkwardly drawn but is racing in peak form and should take beating with normal luck in running. He chased hard when a game second behind Our Rocker in the Homegrown Classic then finished fast at his latest eye-catching third. MAJOR DRAMA (10) won three races in succession including a win in a mile rate of 1.54.5 followed by a fourth behind Heavenly Brigade at Geelong, where she finished strongly from a rearward position. She performs best when she is able to lead so being drawn on the second line is a concern but she is racing too well to dismiss. MICHAYWEY (5) broke stride early and dropped back to last when he made ground and finished fifth at Stawell last outing. He is a speedy type and is worth another chance. AUCKLAND RED (2) and IM WESLEY (11) both get into this race as last start winners and are worth thought again.

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 1,3,4

SELECTIONS: ATA RANGI (8), MAJOR DRAMA (10), MICHAYWEY (5), AUCKLAND RED (2)

RATINGS: 8/ 5,10/ 2,11/ 1

SUGGESTED BET: ATA RANGI (8) each way

 

Race 4:

 

OVERVIEW: It is an open race with many winning chances. CITY ROCKSTAR (11) gets into this race nicely with a concession claim and has been runner up at her past three attempts so she must be respected. She finished quickly from midfield on the markers when a close second at Geelong last outing. RUBY WINGATE (10) is a speedy mare, which has won two out of her past four starts. She finished well from a long way back at her latest fourth and looms as one of the leading chances. EASTBRO KOZZY (9) hasn’t finished further back than fourth at her past nine attempts and was runner up in fast time at Stawell last outing. She is awkwardly drawn but should run her usual honest race. WRITTENINTHESKY (5), MONTANA PRIDE (6) and CALEDONIAN RANGER (7), which performed nicely at a Bacchus Marsh trial on Saturday, are all worth thought.

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible early leader), 3,5,6,7

SELECTIONS: CITY ROCKSTAR (11), RUBY WINGATE (10), EASTBRO KOZZY (9), WRITTENINTHESKY (5)

RATINGS: 10,11/ 9/ 5,6/ 7/ 2

SUGGESTED BET: CITY ROCKSTAR (11) each way

 

Race 5:

 

OVERVIEW: JEREMY LOU (3) is resuming since a big win at Ballarat in November, where he was making his debut for trainer Sam Barker. He is a fast beginner and is drawn to give a bold showing first up. BLUE MIKI (2) progressed forward to find the lead and was able to hang on and win in a mile of 1.57.5 at Geelong last week. This race is of similar standard so he is worth thought again. OLIVIA ROSE (7) struck trouble early and made ground when eighth (9m) last week. She is racing better than her form suggests and is worth another chance. MAJORS CREEK (1) is racing consistently and is drawn to receive the perfect trip so she cannot be left out of calculations.

 

EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 2,4

SELECTIONS: JEREMY LOU (3), BLUE MIKI (2), OLIVIA ROSE (7), MAJORS CREEK (1)

RATINGS: 3/ 2,7/ 1/ 9,10/ 4

SUGGESTED BET: JEREMY LOU (3) to win

 

Race 6:

 

OVERVIEW: FOREGONE CONCLUSION (1) is much better drawn than his latest unplaced effort at Cranbourne and he was up on the pace throughout at his two wins prior. He is likely to hold the lead and he is a short course specialist so he should prove hard to beat. BLACK TUXEDO (8) has the perfect trailing draw behind FOREGONE CONCLUSION (1) and should receive every chance. He led throughout at his Melton victory two starts ago in a slick mile rate of 1.55.6. YANKEE GAMBLER (6) is usually competitive against this class and finished off reasonably well for second behind Lorimermajor last outing. He defeated MON SOLEIL (4) at a Maryborough victory back in October. REALLY SMARTIE (11) is awkwardly drawn but he finished off boldly to win in a mile of 1.56.2 at Geelong last week so he is not without a chance.

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 3

SELECTIONS: FOREGONE CONCLUSION (1), BLACK TUXEDO (8), YANKEE GAMBLER (6), REALLY SMARTIE (11)

RATINGS: 1/ 8/ 6,11/ 4,9,10

SUGGESTED BET: FOREGONE CONCLUSION (1) to win

 

Race 7:

 

OVERVIEW: TINSEL TIARA (8) has been a beaten favourite in all of her three starts since coming from Queensland but she is a speedy mare and her trial form is strong so she is worth another chance. ILLAWONG PHOENIX (7) was headed off at the start and was shuffled back on the markers before finishing off solidly for fifth behind Royal Cadence at Cranbourne last outing. She was placed at her three starts prior and is worth a ticket each way. IAMAWINGATE (5) was heavily supported but became held up for a run at a vital stage and finished fourth at Shepparton last week. He performs best when he is able to lead out then take cover so the move to the front line is a definite advantage. ICANMOTOR (10) gets into this race with a concession claim and has been placed in two of his past four starts so he is worth thought.

 

EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 2,5

SELECTIONS: TINSEL TIARA (8), ILLAWONG PHOENIX (7), IAMAWINGATE (5), ICANMOTOR (10)

RATINGS: 8/ 5,7/ 10/ 6/ 2,3

SUGGESTED BET: TINSEL TIARA (8) to win

 

Race 8:

 

OVERVIEW: LEANNE LEEANN (5) is a strong mare that will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment. She battled on gamely for third in a slick mile rate of 1.56.6 at Melton on Saturday night. MOJITO MADNESS (1) also drops back in class and he is a fast beginner. He has made a few errors recently but he will take catching if he is able to hold the lead around the first corner. HEZA GUN (8) is searching for a winning hat trick and is capable of completing the task. He was able to win with something in reserve at Kilmore last week and he has the perfect trailing draw behind MOJITO MADNESS (1). TIMMY TURTLE (7) progressed forward to find the lead and proved to be too strong at Melton last week. He has gait issues but is a handy type when he is able to put it altogether. 

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible leader), 2,3,6

SELECTIONS: LEANNE LEEANN (5), MOJITO MADNESS (1), HEZA GUN (8), TIMMY TURTLE (7)

RATINGS: 1,5/ 8/ 7/ 2,3

SUGGESTED BET: LEANNE LEEANN (5) each way

 

Race 9:

 

OVERVIEW: KEAYANG LAVITA (3) has ability but has broken stride in all of her thee starts to date. She has had a win and a second in two recent Terang trial performances and will go well if he delivers a fool proof display. KOTA BHARU (2) will appreciate his best draw at his fourth start to date and has the early speed to lob into a prominent position in the early stages. He has been performing nicely at the trials and is ready to break through for a win. RED KERMIT (1) is a debutante for trainer Jess Tubbs, which performed quite well at the trials and is drawn to receive every chance. COLUMBIAS GONZALES (8) has been placed at his past five starts and should gain an economical run on the markers from his trailing draw so he should go well again.

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 7

SELECTIONS: KEAYANG LAVITA (3), KOTA BHARU (2), RED KERMIT (1), COLUMBIAS GONZALES (8)

RATINGS: 2,3/ 1/ 8/ 11

SUGGESTED BET: Boxed Trifecta 1,2,3,8 (Cost $24)

 

Race 10:

 

OVERVIEW: KEAYANG PAYTON (1) is a beautifully bred first starter, which has performed nicely at the Terang trials and is ideally drawn first up so he should prove hard to beat. DAVOLAS LEGACY (2) attempted to lead throughout when a close second at Maryborough when on debut. She strikes a field of similar standard and is worth thought again. CLARA ROCKS (7) boasts handy trial form and raced greenly when third at her debut. She is widely drawn but she appears to be very promising and is worth an investment. RIDDLEMETHIS (4) raced without cover throughout and finished third when on debut at Geelong so he has claims along with JILLIBY RYDER (6).  

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 2,7

SELECTIONS: KEAYANG PAYTON (1), DAVOLAS LEGACY (2), CLARA ROCKS (7), RIDDLEMETHIS (4)

RATINGS: 1/ 2,7/ 4,6

SUGGESTED BET: KEAYANG PAYTON (1) to win