Form Analysis by Ryan Phelan
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: Terrific race to open proceedings at Cranbourne with every horse in solid form and not without a winning chance. THUNDERFIRE (5) is first up off a couple of very nice trials at Shepparton, the most recent where he powered to the front and won hard held by a space. His form last preparation suggested he’s destined for Melton company very soon, and even though this race presents as a challenge with more fitness to come, his class edge is a major factor.
SOLS ME NAME (6) is reliant on a scratching to make his way into the field, but the form he’s displayed for the astute Jayne Davies camp is first rate and he’s progressing as a more than handy 3yo. He comes off a strong win in a better-rated race at Geelong and looks well placed with the junior claim of Taylor Youl. If he starts, he can win. VIVID DREAM (3) is looking to build a picket fence, and whilst he steps up in grade here, from what he’s displayed he’s more than equal to the task. He has the capacity to use the barrier and get a nice map to strike late. BULLETPROOF KID (2) is a quick beginner and has options from the favourable draw and is most likely to find the pegs first. His past couple have been very good without winning. It’s a quality race and the chances don’t end there, with KATIE LORRAINE (9) the next best in the mix.
SELECTIONS: THUNDERFIRE (5), SOLS ME NAME (6), VIVID DREAM (3), BULLETPROOF KID (2)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: CYCLONE JENNI (8) is third-up and finds her most suitable opposition after clashing with a few handy ones. Whilst the draw may be a little awkward, the extra distance works in her favour, and it’s unlikely she’ll have to make ground in the sort of sectionals she’s faced her past couple. The only driver to win on her, Chris Alford, goes back aboard. Her best is city class.
BONA KHAN (4) is a very quick beginner and is always suited at this track and distance, particularly when he’s able to lead, which he looks capable of achieving here. He won three on the trot over the short journey last month, and getting a start as the first emergency here changes the shape of the race. HIGHVIEW HAMMER (1) has a good strike rate at this track and looks to get a soft run along the pegs before getting his chance late along the sprint lane. IMA CHARMA (9) gets back to a more suitable grade and has been racing well in tougher company, including a good second last time out. His record at this track is strong. MASTER LOUEY (7) creates interest off a fair trial win at Melton, and his winning form last preparation looked good enough for this grade. He has a tricky draw to overcome, however. Not sure what to make of the Tasmanian form of SHALLOW BEACH (6) who could be in the market on that form, as he’s only had two thirds from seventeen starts here.
BACK: CYCLONE JENNI (8) – 1.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: CYCLONE JENNI (8), BONA KHAN (4), HIGHVIEW HAMMER (1), IMA CHARMA (9)
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: ALLTHINGS MENACING (9) turned in a nice effort on debut where he had an unsuccessful crack for the lead, was forced to sit parked and stuck on gamely. He trialled well prior to that to further suggest there’s ability. This race presents as slightly easier, and conserving from the trailing draw may help him overpower them in the last quarter.
DIAMOND CHIPP (10) came through the same race, and despite only finishing sixth was finding the line nicely. She’ll be tempo-dependent, but a repeat of that effort gives her solid claims. DAISY STARZZZ (2) beat both of those home in that race but had an economical run three back on the pegs and got through late. The draw is better this time, so don’t dismiss her chances. TARZINA (1) hasn’t set the world on fire in ten starts, but did turn in her best run to date last time when second, and the soft draw aids her chances. Also, watch betting on first-starter MARIANA (5) as there was sharp improvement from her first trial to the next, and the stable can produce these to win at this level.
SELECTIONS: ALLTHINGS MENACING (9), DIAMOND CHIPP (10), DAISY STARZZZ (2), TARZINA (1)
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: The three Graham-trained runners hold the key here, headed by last-start winner and likely leader FINAL BOW (3) who led all the way at Shepparton on Tuesday with Herbertson aboard. She was beaten fair and square by stablemate DOT BALL (4) here two runs back, and she’s won again since. DOT BALL should get nice cover from stablemate TOPHUT JOHNY (5) who normally races forward. He’s the one of those three best suited by the grade, dropping in class for this, but probably gets the toughest map.
ELLEEGANT LANE (2) if there’s a spoiler of the “Graham Party”, it’s her, as she’s likely to be camped right on their backs. She’s enjoying her best season and does drop in class for this. Keep a watch on CARUSO STAR (8) who hasn’t been seen since June where he was okay, but his best would keep him in it.
SELECTIONS: FINAL BOW (3), DOT BALL (4), TOPHUT JOHNY (5), ELLEEGANT LANE (2)
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: VAN NOSTRAND (3) looks well placed for a first-up victory here, possessing good gate speed to look the likely leader over the mile. I really liked his trial into this at Shepparton where he led easily and held off some in-form trotters. A nice form line is going back to his last start in December in the Vicbred Homegrown series where he was going to win, only to lock wheels at a vital stage. Despite needing fitness, he ticks a lot of boxes here.
MINNIE MIA (5) was the rival that locked wheels in that race after sitting parked. She’s resumed well this campaign, including a win two runs back when able to lead all the way, winning by a space. She raced in much better class last time and this looks suitable. JUST ME AND YOU (8) when she isn’t knocking up positive form, it’s often due to her manners and getting it wrong at the start, so she’s a watch from that perspective. James Herbertson has his first steer, and she commands respect despite giving away a map advantage. MAJESTIC YANKEE (6) showed plenty at the trials and was well supported on debut, only to gallop away. She was freshened and resumed with a big win last time out when able to lead. This is a different challenge for her, but she warrants consideration.
SELECTIONS: VAN NOSTRAND (3), MINNIE MIA (5), JUST ME AND YOU (8), MAJESTIC YANKEE (6)
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: Speed map is the key with several runners looking to race forward here over the short trip. TYPHOON (3) gets the barrier draw advantage and was able to lead all the way from the same draw two back, where he put down a last half which would see him hard to catch from the top spot. He had no luck in a stronger race last time, so can bounce back.
ARISA (7) is first-up with no trial, but her win here last time when able to lead was very good. She led from a better draw and did get a soft middle section, but the way she found the line was very good. TRICODE (6) will find this much easier than running into the smart The Last Trip, and prior to that was a nice winner at Geelong. He may not be in the speed battle but can work home if the tempo is right. LIKE A GAZELLE (4) came home like her name suggests last time when first-up from a break. She was given a great steer in a peg-hugging drive and will come on with more fitness. MISS ADDI (5) is also first-up off a long break but she has trialled fairly several times. Her three career runs suggest she has ability but will likely need this.
BACK: TYPHOON (3) – 2 units (win)
SELECTIONS: TYPHOON (3), ARISA (7), TRICODE (6), LIKE A GAZELLE (4)
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: BETA THAN LOVE (1) returns to the Samantha Gangell stable after a winless 16 months. When formerly under her care he won two from three starts, going back-to-back at this track before racing up in grade at Melton where he led and ran well. His best is at a much higher ratings band than he meets here, and with his terrific gate speed he’ll get the right trip and can bounce back to winning form.
PICKLE IT (7) is a very quick beginner and will have a look at the lead here. It’s problematic whether the top pick will want to take cover, so his fortunes are reliant on him finding the pegs. ALPHA CRUCIS (6) is better than his recent form suggests, and his best performances come at this track. The draw is a little sticky, but he has better credentials than most. IMAGUNNARESTNGO (5) was a surprise winner at massive odds at headquarters four runs back to break her maiden. Whilst that form is an outlier, anything close to that keeps her in the mix.
BACK: BETA THAN LOVE (1) – 3.5 units (win)
SELECTIONS: BETA THAN LOVE (1), PICKLE IT (7), ALPHA CRUCIS (6), IMAGUNNARESTNGO (5)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: WHATS THE TEA (6) looks well suited against this line-up, finding himself back in grade where he was a winner five runs back. Even though he’s an out-of-the-draw runner, he’s a horse who can show reasonable gate speed and can be expected to press forward with a safe beginning. He gets his best chance to score his first victory at this circuit in eleven tries.
The barrier draw was the difference when he finished second to MAJESTIC CHARMA (7) at this track and class early last month. On that occasion Majestic Charma was able to lead, but his manners have let him down his past couple, galloping at the start. His best form has him right in it. MAORI TATTOO (4) was taken to South Australia to find some form and there were some glimpses of that with a win, albeit in slow time. He’s trialled soundly into this, and the trainer/driver combination warrants respect. ATEGO DAWN (2) has been going okay for the new stable and has run some nice races at this track. He’s in the mix as a knockout chance.
BACK: WHATS THE TEA (6) – 3 units (win)
SELECTIONS: WHATS THE TEA (6), MAJESTIC CHARMA (7), MAORI TATTOO (4), ATEGO DAWN (2)
The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer generated price based on a range of key form factors with occasional analyst input and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licenced bookmaker.
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