Form Analysis by Craig Rail

 

Race 1:

OVERVIEW: HESASTAR (4) began quickly from the outside of the front line but was stranded without cover in a genuine tempo when a brave second last week. This is a race of similar standard and he is capable of going one better. APOLOGY ACCEPTED (7) settled midfield, came out three horses wide from the 600m and hit the lead in the straight before being run down in the last stride by Caulonia Bella last week. He is awkwardly drawn but is nearing a win against this class. BIG BAD CHAD (6) progressed forward to race without cover at the 1300m and hit the front at the quarter pole before being run down in the straight at his latest handy third. He is a tough type and is not without a chance. PUNTO CALIENTE (5) is usually competitive under these conditions and THE AFRICAN QUEEN (8) will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment.

BACK: HESASTAR (4) – 1.5 units (each way)

SELECTIONS: HESASTAR (4), APOLOGY ACCEPTED (7), BIG BAD CHAD (6), PUNTO CALIENTE (5)

Race 2:

OVERVIEW: GIDGETT KAY (6) hasn’t been placed in five Victorian attempts but she won on debut at Menangle and she will appreciate a significant drop back in class for this assignment. She is widely drawn but should go well at her Mildura debut. SNEAKY PHILTRA (8) broke stride at the start, settled midfield and worked home okay for fourth behind Caulonia Bella last week. She should be better from that run and was placed at the trials prior so she is not without a chance. DAYLIGHT (1) gained the perfect trip and accelerated beautifully from the home turn to win clearly last week. This race is much harder but she is a fast beginner and should receive every chance from the pole position. SHES POPPY (7) failed to beat a runner to the line last week but she tends to perform best when she gains a trail on the markers close to the speed so she is ideally drawn to suit her racing pattern and is a possible improver.

SELECTIONS: GIDGETT KAY (6), SNEAKY PHILTRA (8), DAYLIGHT (1), SHES POPPY (7)

Race 3:

OVERVIEW: RUGGARDS GEE TEE (3) delivered clearly a career best performance when he ran along at a rapid rate in the lead and never appeared to be in any danger of defeat last week. This race is slightly tougher but he should prove hard to beat again. PRIDDY CARSON (2) settled seventh on the markers, worked into the clear at the quarter pole and made up a lot of ground when an eye-catching second last week. He continues to improve with the benefit of experience and should go well again. ALWAYS ON SAFARI (1) attempted to lead throughout when second behind Maggacis last week. He is drawn to lead again and looms as one of the leading chances. RED HOT MIKI (4) was heavily supported last week but lost his chance after galloping shortly after the start. He didn’t have much luck in the straight and wasn’t beaten by far so he was unlucky in that performance and is worth another chance.

SELECTIONS: RUGGARDS GEE TEE (3), PRIDDY CARSON (2), ALWAYS ON SAFARI (1), RED HOT MIKI (4) 

Race 4:

OVERVIEW: ANDRETTI (4) is a former New Zealand pacer, which competed in the Nutrien Classic series at his first two Australian attempts then made his Victorian debut at Shepparton on Tuesday night. He has been competing against strong opposition both in Australia and New Zealand and he should prove hard to beat under these conditions. LITTLE WONDER (5) left a trailing position to progress forward and find the lead at the 1400m when he scored comfortably last week. She has been placed at her past six attempts (3 wins) and will run her usual honest race. LOUIEVILLE (8) broke stride at the start, settled down in last position and finished strongly out wide late when a game fifth last week. He has the perfect trailing draw and appears to be a very good value chance. AVOCA BLUES (6) tends to perform best over the sprint distance but he possesses brilliant gate speed and he got across to find the markers before taking cover from a similar wide draw last week. He had his chance behind LITTLE WONDER (5) but still managed second and he should be competitive again.

SELECTIONS: ANDRETTI (4), LITTLE WONDER (5), LOUIEVILLE (8), AVOCA BLUES (6)

Race 5:

OVERVIEW: WINSHEMAY (1) is a first starter for trainer Ron Irving, which came from last and drew clear of her rivals to easily win a Mildura trial last week. She obviously has ability and should make her presence felt from the pole position. CAPTAINMAYO (4) is a first starter for trainer Peter Bain, which was a winner at a recent Gawler trial performance. She is a nicely bred filly and is likely to attract plenty of support for her debut performance. SWEET LUCY LOU (7) was shuffled to being four back on the markers from a similar draw last week and finished off strongly after obtaining a late inside run for a game second. Her two efforts since resuming have been sound and she should be running home strongly again. SANTA CASA LEVI (3) finished off well for fourth from being three back on the markers last week. She has shown promise in her three starts to date and is worth thought. NO GOOD REASON (2) and STARZZZOFTERRY (8) are both racing well enough to figure in the finish.  

BACK: WINSHEMAY (1) – 1.5 units (each way)

SELECTIONS: WINSHEMAY (1), CAPTAINMAYO (4), SWEET LUCY LOU (7), SANTA CASA LEVI (3)

Race 6:

OVERVIEW: G B BRAVE (8) was having his first run for over a month when he settled down last from a poor draw and made a long run out four horses wide from the 600m when a brave second behind Jilpanger Rose last week. He is yet to miss a position outside of the top two in seven Mildura attempts and should have benefited from his effort last week so he will prove hard to beat. LOSEASHOE (9) performed below expectations last outing but he led throughout at a recent Mildura victory and he ran an enormous race to beat half of the field home after being severely checked at the 1300m two starts ago. He has ability and must be given another chance. RUBBLEONTHEDOUBLE (4) missed out last outing but his overall form at Mildura has been sound. He was stranded out wide early and had to be restrained to last before running home well late for a game second two starts ago. STARVIN MARVIN (5) should be getting fitter after having three starts back from a spell and ran a game race for fourth at his latest attempt so he rates as a value hope. ROCKNROLL LENNY (6) and CHEERS POVERTY (7) are both dropping back in class and are not without a chance.

BACK: G B BRAVE (8) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: G B BRAVE (8), LOSEASHOE (9), RUBBLEONTHEDOUBLE (4), STARVIN MARVIN (5)

Race 7:

OVERVIEW: MY ULTIMATE JIMMY (8) worked very hard and did a lot of chasing when a big second behind Prioritise in fast time last week. He boasts an outstanding record at Mildura and is the class runner of the field so he looms as the horse to beat. HEZA PUNK ROCKER (10) appears to be the logical danger. He won the Victor Harbor Cup on April 05 and was runner up in the Adelaide Cup two starts ago. He is very strong and is capable of overcoming the poor draw. DALLAS MIKI (6) is widely drawn but he led throughout to beat MY ULTIMATE JIMMY (8) in the Robinvale Cup two starts ago and will take running down if he can find the lead. TOUGH AINT ENOUGH (7) returned to some form last week and is worth a place ticket. NEVS DREAM (1) is racing in career best form and is a brilliant beginner but this is her toughest test.

BACK: MY ULTIMATE JIMMY (8) – 2 units (win)  

SELECTIONS: MY ULTIMATE JIMMY (8), HEZA PUNK ROCKER (10), DALLAS MIKI (6), TOUGH AINT ENOUGH (7)

 

The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm generated price estimate based on a range of key form factors and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licensed bookmaker.

For all your harness form in one place go to goodform.thetrots.com.au 

** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10

 

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