Form Analysis by Craig Rail

 

Race 1:

OVERVIEW: SHES POPPY (7) is a speedy mare that will appreciate a significant drop back in class for this assignment. She trailed the leader, came to the outside and finished off best to win comfortably at Mildura on March 27. GLITZY ALL OVER (6) will also find this race to be easier than her two performances in the Club Merbein series during the Cup Carnival. She was placed in a heat of that series and was a winner at Mildura back on March 10 so she must be respected. DAYSIE BROWN (2) has the early speed to find a prominent position in the early stages and did well during Cup week with a third in both heat and final of the Zilzie Wines series. She is a good chance of ending up being in her favourite position of trailing the leader from her good draw and is worth thought. The Andrew Vozlic trained trio CORNELIA (3), DIAMOND KRUSHER (4) and ONLY ONCE BITTEN (5) all have claims in an open race to commence the program.

SELECTIONS: SHES POPPY (7), GLITZY ALL OVER (6), DAYSIE BROWN (2), DIAMOND KRUSHER (4)

Race 2:

OVERVIEW: DON CRUNCH (7) won a trial at Bendigo prior to a debut third ($2-00 fav) at Mildura, where he broke stride 50m after the start, settled at the tail of the field and tried to sustain a long run from the 700m. He strikes a very suitable assignment and should prove hard to beat. BLISSFULL RED (1) began quickly and attempted to lead throughout when fourth behind Xlendi Star at Mildura last week. She is drawn to lead again so she is not without a chance. POSTER ART (4) settled four back on the markers and finished a distant fourth behind Priddy Carson at her debut performance. She should have benefited from the experience and is a minor place possibility. DESTINY KEPT (6) was aggressively driven from the second row to move up without cover and raced fiercely mid-race so she had excuses at her latest tenth. She has won a trial at Mildura recently and could improve on her numerical form.

BACK: DON CRUNCH (7) – 3 units (win)

SELECTIONS: DON CRUNCH (7), BLISSFULL RED (1), POSTER ART (4), DESTINY KEPT (6)

Race 3:

OVERVIEW: NOCOMMENT (1) has attempted to lead throughout at her past two Mildura performances and finished second both times. She met a handy juvenile pacer in Fully Reckless at her latest effort and gets her chance to post her Maiden success here. THE NINJA (5) settled midfield and came out four horses wide on the home turn when a creditable fourth in the same race last week. He does tend to perform best when he is able to lead and might be left stranded without cover from his wide draw but he has been promising a win for some time. MELS NIGHT OUT (8) continues to improve with the benefit of experience. He settled three back on the markers and worked home quite well for third in a race of similar standard on Saturday night. TARAJI (2) was runner up after trailing the leader two starts ago and is drawn to gain a trail close to the speed again so he is not without a chance.

BACK: NOCOMMENT (1) – 3 units (win)

SELECTIONS: NOCOMMENT (1), THE NINJA (5), MELS NIGHT OUT (8), TARAJI (2)

Race 4:

OVERVIEW: ROYAL SAXON (5) is a fast beginner and ran a game race for second behind the Emma Stewart trained pacer The Art Of Success in a sizzling mile rate of 1.56.7 on Saturday night. He is widely drawn but is racing in great form and deserves to return to the winning list. LOUIEVILLE (8) led out then took cover and ended up being three back on the markers when second behind Dallas Miki in fast time two starts ago. He didn’t have much luck at his latest fourth and he should be finding the line nicely against this class. APOLOGY ACCEPTED (3) finished third after trailing the leader on Saturday night. He has been racing consistently against similar grade and is worth a ticket each way. ROCKING WROXTON (1) broke stride momentarily when trying to push into the clear on the home turn when an unlucky second on Saturday night. He is ideally drawn and should go well. LOSEASHOE (6) was able to score at a Mildura trial effort prior to missing a place on the first night of the Mildura Cup Carnival. He drops back in class for this assignment and is capable of figuring in the finish.

SELECTIONS: ROYAL SAXON (5), LOUIEVILLE (8), APOLOGY ACCEPTED (3), ROCKING WROXTON (1)  

Race 5:

OVERVIEW: RONZEL MICKY (7) has the perfect trailing draw behind the likely leader in CHEERS POVERTY (1) and she has the ability to sprint to the line quickly with the right trail forward so she appears to be a value chance. She led throughout at a Mildura victory on April 07. MIDNIGHT PIRATE (9) has been chasing the in-form pacer Dallas Miki at his past three attempts and will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment. There are several fast beginners drawn on the front line so a genuine early tempo will enhance his winning chances. CHEERS POVERTY (1) hasn’t been able to find his favourite front running position at his most recent performances and has the conditions to suit him here so he can improve on his numerical form. NEVS DREAM (4) is racing in career best form having won four of her past five starts and she led throughout to win clearly on Saturday night. She is unlikely to find the lead from her wide draw and is rising in grade but she is racing too well to dismiss.

BACK: RONZEL MICKY (7) – 1 unit (each way)

SELECTIONS: RONZEL MICKY (7), MIDNIGHT PIRATE (9), CHEERS POVERTY (1), NEVS DREAM (4)  

Race 6:

OVERVIEW: PRIORITISE (10) is a strong pacer that is racing in good form and appears to be well placed against this line up. He led throughout for a comfortable victory four starts ago and his past two efforts were in a heat and in the final of the Mildura Cup. He has a tough draw to overcome but he is the class runner of the field. NEATNTIDY (4) has been placed in four of his past five starts and continues to perform well at Metropolitan level. He led out then took cover when third behind the quality pacer Zanda Man last outing and he looms as one of the main chances again. JAXON BEACH (9) progressed forward to find the lead and held his rivals safely at bay when he defeated KEAYANG MOROCCAN (6) on Saturday night. He does tend to perform best when he is in front so being drawn on the second line is a disadvantage but he should run a good race again. CEMETERY BAY (1) was runner up behind PRIORITISE (10) then again behind My Ultimate Jimmy prior to contesting a heat of the Mildura Cup. He is ideally drawn to suit his racing pattern and is not without a chance.

BACK: PRIORITISE (10) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: PRIORITISE (10), NEATNTIDY (4), JAXON BEACH (9), CEMETERY BAY (1)

Race 7:

OVERVIEW: EARS THE BOSS (5) was confidently supported at his first start for trainer Tori Hutchins but he dragged a flat tyre and lost his chance. He is a fast beginner and he strikes a suitable assignment now so he is worth another chance. RUBBLEONTHEDOUBLE (9) didn’t have a great deal of luck at his latest seventh during the Mildura Cup Carnival and must be considered as one of the leading chances under these conditions. ROJENBYE (10) worked home well for second in a heat of the Zilzie Wines Pace series on the opening night of the Mildura Cup Carnival then was shuffled back in the field mid-race when an unlucky fifth in the Final. This race is slightly easier and he should be hitting the line strongly. BEARTASTIC WRITER (1) is a fast beginner and performs best when he is able to lead. He raced without cover throughout when seventh last week and endured a similar trip when fourth prior. PUNTO CALIENTE (4) settled down last from a poor draw and picked up ground when fifth at his first run since December. He should be fitter after that performance and he will appreciate moving to the front line so he is worth thought.

SELECTIONS: EARS THE BOSS (5), RUBBLEONTHEDOUBLE (9), ROJENBYE (10), BEARTASTIC WRITER (1), PUNTO CALIENTE (4)

 

The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm generated price estimate based on a range of key form factors and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licensed bookmaker.

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** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10

 

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