Form Analysis by Bronte Nieuwenburg

 

Race 1:

OVERVIEW: This looks like quite an open event to start the meeting. OZZIE PEARL (8) has only two wins to her name, but she has probably deserved more in her time. She is a very fast filly when saved for one run. Her barrier is a bit awkward, but if she has luck, she will be flashing home. LORDE VERDE (12) has been in career-best form since moving to the Michael Laugher team. He has won five of his last 10 starts and hasn’t been out of the top five since joining the stable. Barrier 12 over the short trip will be very tough. BREATHE EASY (3) has been consistently performing well over the last six months and is racing at, if not near, his best. He is better when he doesn’t have to race tough, so if he can find a forward position with cover or in front, he is a great winning chance. MY BEAUTIFUL LIFE (1) is first up back in Victoria after a campaign in Tasmania. It is a bit hard to place where she is at. She did finish second in a recent Melton trial, but it was in slow time. She does have the ace barrier here though, so she should get a good trip. Also noting WILL HE REIGN (4) hasn’t raced in 833 days. He does have very good gate speed, which could impact the race map, but being first up he is likely to be driven conservatively.

SELECTIONS: OZZIE PEARL (8), LORDE VERDE (12), MY BEAUTIFUL LIFE (1), BREATHE EASY (3)

Race 2:

OVERVIEW: DHONI TROUBLE (4) and KYVALLEY JAGGER (8) have the clear best sectional times in this field. Leaning to KYVALLEY JAGGER (8), who was great winning last start when he had to cover an extra 20m throughout racing off the fence. He looks to be finding his best form this preparation. His fence-line barrier is awkward, but he follows out KYVALLEY ANTHONY (1), who has great gate speed and ran along well in front to win last start. DHONI TROUBLE (4) was first up in eight months and also first up since returning to Victoria after racing in Queensland. His last two runs in QLD were good wins. He will need to improve on his first-up performance where he was only fair, but he has put forward two good trials since. SETTLE THE BILL (9) got back into the winner’s circle impressively last start from the same barrier after two prior runs with bad manners. If she can trot throughout, she is a great winning chance. THE SKY IS THE LIMIT (7) raced against some nice horses on a Saturday night Melton card last start. It was a step up in class, so her run was better than it looks on paper. Prior to that she was putting together some nice performances. Another awkward barrier here, but this looks a more suitable race. Noting MY JERRY (2) looked a handy horse a few years back, but was first up last start after not racing since January 2024. He will improve with fitness, but happy to leave him out for now.
SELECTIONS: KYVALLEY JAGGER (8), DHONI TROUBLE (4), SETTLE THE BILL (9), THE SKY IS THE LIMIT (7)

Race 3:
OVERVIEW: In an even field, barrier draws are very important and YELLA (2) is the winner of the barrier among the better horses. He may not find the front, but he should be able to get forward. He has been unlucky recently but is racing better than his form suggests. OUR TRUE COLOURS (6) has an awkward barrier but has a good turn of foot if saved for one run. She is the best swooper in the field, so if she is close enough, she will be flashing home. BLUE MIKI (9) is third up and should be reaching peak fitness. He was good at Terang last start when pressured throughout and should get a better run here. METRO MEMORY (10) can produce a strong performance at his best and has won at big odds previously. He cannot be left out, especially if he finds luck.
SELECTIONS: YELLA (2), OUR TRUE COLOURS (6), BLUE MIKI (9), METRO MEMORY (10)

Race 4:
OVERVIEW: This looks like a nice class drop for JUST AS I AM (5), who is a quality trotter and well placed here. He went a bit amiss last start in a race he probably should have won, but he has had a freshen-up since. Tricky barrier, but he may still be too good. AETOS DYNAMIS (2) hasn’t had things go his way in his last two starts, but prior to that he was racing well against nice horses. He has gate speed and should map well if he does everything right. HILLSIDE (9) maps well following through early and should find a position in the front half. He looked the winner last start before being run down late by the fast-finishing Kyvalley Jagger. With luck, he is a good each-way chance. KARBINE (7) galloped at the 400m last start, got back into a trot and flashed home for third. He is a high-speed trotter but can make mistakes. If he trots throughout, he will be flashing home but needs luck.

BACK: JUST AS I AM (5) – 3 units (win)

SELECTIONS: JUST AS I AM (5), AETOS DYNAMIS (2), HILLSIDE (9), KARBINE (7)

Race 5:
OVERVIEW: BUSLIN BRODY (5) was eye-catching last start at Maryborough. He galloped before the 600m, got back trotting, caught the field and stormed home for third. If he can trot throughout here, he is a big winning chance. WAIKARE ADRIENNA (6) has shown promise and at her best is right in this. If the race suits, she has a good turn of foot. TE AMO (4) was a last-start winner at Ballarat. He got lucky with runs late but hit the line really well. He has the winning confidence and the best sectional times in the field. RIGHT OF REPLY (2) maps well from barrier two. He had a flat tyre last start and was first up the run prior. He is race fit now and should get a good run.

BACK: BUSLIN BRODY (5) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: BUSLIN BRODY (5), WAIKARE ADRIENNA (6), TE AMO (4), RIGHT OF REPLY (2)

Race 6:
OVERVIEW: STRAIGHT TO THETOP (5) is in good form, finishing top three in her last six starts. Her usual pattern is to find the front with her brilliant gate speed, but she can get outsprinted late. If she doesn’t have to work too hard, she will be hard to catch. ALWAYS SKYE HIGH (2) has been a bit unreliable at times but has put it together in her last two starts for an impressive win and a solid third. She will likely be saved for one run and, if close enough, is a big chance. TIPPLE TIME (8) is the only horse on the second row, giving her time and space to settle, which suits given her recent manners. She is second up and has ability. JESSICAS STORY (6) got it wrong early last start but still hit the line strongly. If she does everything right, she is a winning chance.

BACK: STRAIGHT TO THETOP (5) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: STRAIGHT TO THETOP (5), ALWAYS SKYE HIGH (2), TIPPLE TIME (8), JESSICAS STORY (6)

Race 7:
OVERVIEW: The Russell and Nathan Jack combination look to have a nice first starter here in LOCHINVAR CHANDON (6). She is, however, a two-year-old filly taking on older horses. She looked very good in a trial where she loomed up and finished alongside Fully Reckless, who franked that form by winning well on debut on Mildura Cup night. She may still be too good for this field. ARZALI ROCKSTAR (7) has only had four career starts and was well beaten last start at Melton, but that race contained some very nice horses, including Keayang Passion and Mount Barker Boy. Her runs prior were promising. On exposed form, she has clearly the best sectional times in this field. WAYSAM (1) is second up here. She showed good gate speed to lead from the same barrier at Kilmore last start and was only beaten late into third. This looks a similar race and she should improve from that run. It looked a career-best performance from CAPTAINS RUSH (4) last start when leading. She was beaten late by Shiffrin, who looks a smart horse. The barrier is awkward here.

BACK: LOCHINVAR CHANDON (6) – 3 units (win)

SELECTIONS: LOCHINVAR CHANDON (6), ARZALI ROCKSTAR (7), WAYSAM (1), CAPTAINS RUSH (4)

 

Race 8:
OVERVIEW: SEW HOPEFUL (1) is first up here after 95 days. She won a recent trial at Bacchus Marsh. It was in slow time, but she did everything right. Fitness is a query, but she has the gate speed to lead and should be hard to beat. MIDNIGHT DIVA (4) is having her third career start. She was slightly inconvenienced last start but ran home well in a race run in good time. She looks very well placed here. WHIRILY MAURZ (6) is the most experienced runner in this field with 24 starts. She hit the line well three starts back at Bendigo and, with luck, she is a winning chance. SHARP CYGNET (8) is a first starter for John Murphy. She has put together a few solid trials. As the only horse on the back row, she has options and time to settle early.
SELECTIONS: SEW HOPEFUL (1), MIDNIGHT DIVA (4), WHIRILY MAURZ (6), SHARP CYGNET (8)

Race 9:
OVERVIEW: The limited exposed form and presence of first starters make this a very even race with many chances. On exposed form, PIPALICIOUS (7) stands out with strong sectional times. However, she has only put it all together on two occasions from nine starts. If she trots throughout, she is a big winning chance. THE TROUT COD (1) is yet to get her manners right in race conditions, but she did win a trial at Melton in early March. She is well bred and comes from the Andy Gath stable, which has a strong record with trotters. She just needs to trot. SUMMIT MEETING (5) and GRAINER (2) have both shown promise in trials leading into their debuts. Leaning slightly to SUMMIT MEETING (5) off a Maryborough trial win, though it wasn’t run in fast time. Both could perform well. HEIR JAURDON (6) is having her third start and is still learning. She found the front last start at Maryborough, over-raced and finished third. If she settles better here, she can improve again.
SELECTIONS: PIPALICIOUS (7), THE TROUT COD (1), SUMMIT MEETING (5), HEIR JAURDON (6)

 

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