Form Analysis by Craig Rail
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: SOHO PLAYGIRL (4) is racing in peak form and races best when she is able to lead over the sprint distance so she strikes another suitable assignment here. She worked to the front and recorded a career best mile rate of 1.54.1 when she scored at Bendigo last outing. BIG SLEDGE HAMMER (9) produced his best performance for some time when he worked forward to race without cover and proved to be too strong for his rivals at Shepparton last outing. He drops back to the second line now but this is a field of similar quality so he is worth an investment. TRIPLE ROCK SAINT (11) led out and eventually took cover when third on the Metropolitan program at Melton last outing. This race is a little easier so he is not without a chance. CAPTAIN JAZZ (7) is a juvenile filly taking on strong opposition but she performed well enough first up to warrant respect. KEAYANG OMAR (1) settled down last and couldn’t work into the race at Echuca. He is better than his form reads and rates as a value hope from the pole position.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 5,7
SELECTIONS: SOHO PLAYGIRL (4), BIG SLEDGE HAMMER (9), TRIPLE ROCK SAINT (11), CAPTAIN JAZZ (7)
RATINGS: 4/ 7,9,11/ 1/ 8
SUGGESTED BET: SOHO PLAYGIRL (4) to win
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: ANAKIN (11) performs best when he is close to the lead so being drawn on the second line is a disadvantage but his form is too good to dismiss. He has been placed at his past five attempts and his latest fighting second behind Test of Fire was in a slick mile rate of 1.54.3. LUVATINNY (8) hasn’t raced since winning a Consolation of the Bathurst Gold Tiara in March but she led throughout to win a trial at Shepparton last week so she must be respected. MACK PACK (3) was heavily supported at Charlton on November 03 and ran a good race for second after finding the lead. He is a good chance of finding the top again here and is worth an investment. CHOGI (4) returned from a Tasmanian campaign in style when she led throughout to score comfortably at Mildura. She is worth thought along with ANIMADO (9), which had excuses after striking trouble at St Arnaud last outing.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible leader), 2,4
SELECTIONS: ANAKIN (11), LUVATINNY (8), MACK PACK (3), CHOGI (4)
RATINGS: 11/ 3,8/ 4,9/ 5
SUGGESTED BET: ANAKIN (11) each way
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: FLOPPA (10) settled midfield and sustained a strong run to win in a handy mile rate of 1.56.2 when he was resuming. This race doesn’t appear to be any tougher and he should prove hard to beat again. AUSSIE JAY MAC (4) did well after getting into trouble at the start when third behind The Postmaster in fast time three back, competed in a heat of the South Australian Derby at his next attempt then endured a tough run when fourth last time out. He deserves a change of luck and gets his chance to run a big race from his handy draw. CATIES SON (7) was resuming since August when a distant ninth in a strong heat of the Super Series, where the winner Luvtobeuptome posted an incredible mile rate of 1.53.7 (2150m). He is widely drawn but will appreciate a big drop back in class and should be competitive. GO EASY ON ME (12) hasn’t finished further back than fourth in her five starts to date and her past two placed efforts have been behind the in-form pacers Soho Playgirl and The Postmaster so she cannot be left out of calculations.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (possible leader), 1,6
SELECTIONS: FLOPPA (10), AUSSIE JAY MAC (4), CATIES SON (7), GO EASY ON ME (12)
RATINGS: 10/ 4,7/ 12/ 6,11
SUGGESTED BET: FLOPPA (10) to win
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: SHEZFAIRYSWEET (2) was resuming since April when a creditable third behind Lilstrepo (won again since) at Shepparton on November 04. She should continue to improve with the benefit of experience and must be included amongst the leading chances. THE GOLDEN HOOK (3) looms as the main danger. He missed out narrowly behind My Bella at Swan Hill then followed with a third behind Floppa at Kilmore last week. MILLWOOD MIKI (9) performed well at the trials prior to a first up third behind Mezzanotti at St Arnaud. He is working into peak form and rates as a value chance. LA SMOOCH (7) contested a strong heat of the Super Series last outing and is likely to find this assignment to be easier. He is widely drawn but is not without a winning chance.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible leader) 2,3,4,7
SELECTIONS: SHEZFAIRYSWEET (2), THE GOLDEN HOOK (3), MILLWOOD MIKI (9), LA SMOOCH (7)
RATINGS: 2,3/ 7,9/ 1,8/ 4
SUGGESTED BET: SHEZFAIRYSWEET (2) to win
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: SETTLE THE BILL (7) was successful at Kilmore on Thursday after she settled midfield on the markers, worked into the clear at the 500m and finished off swiftly. She is widely drawn but looms as one of the leading chances again. FRANKYTHEFRENCHMAN (5) is trotting in peak form and should prove hard to beat. He finished off boldly to get the prize over Atego Dawn on the first day of the Redwood Carnival and was working home okay before breaking stride in the home straight at Kilmore on Thursday. INSPIRE (4) has struck peak form and defeated a field of similar quality at Bendigo on October 15. He found the front and battled on strongly for third at Melton last outing so another forward showing is expected. SUZYS DREAM (10) finished quickly from off the speed when she scored at Shepparton last outing. She has a tough draw to overcome but she is worth thought again.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 3,7
SELECTIONS: SETTLE THE BILL (7), FRANKYTHEFRENCHMAN (5), INSPIRE (4), SUZYS DREAM (10)
RATINGS: 5,7/ 4/ 3,10/ 9
SUGGESTED BET: SETTLE THE BILL (7) to win
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: PASTOR DUNBAR (3) is a juvenile colt for trainer Damian Wilson, which finished strongly and appeared to have plenty in reserve when he won a Shepparton trial last week. He strikes a suitable assignment first up and must be respected. SEBS GAL (2) is also a recent Shepparton trial winner and is backing up quickly from her debut performance at Cranbourne on Sunday. She is perfectly drawn and should run a good race. VAN NOSTRAND (7) finished second in the trial won by PASTOR DUNBAR (3) last week and showed some ability. He was confidently supported at his debut ($3-50efav) but lost all chance after making an error. He is worth thought along with ME AND ZAC (8), which also struck bother last time out but has performed well at the trials since.
EARLY SPEED: 5 (likely early leader), 2,6
SELECTIONS: PASTOR DUNBAR (3), SEBS GAL (2), VAN NOSTRAND (7), ME AND ZAC (8)
RATINGS: 3/ 2,7/ 8/ 5/ 4
SUGGESTED BET: PASTOR DUNBAR (3) to win
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: CHAINSMOKE (5) was excellent at the trials before his first up third behind Where Is Woody at Bendigo, where he finished off strongly. He sustained a flat tyre and struck bother last time out so he is worth another chance. KRAKEY (4) began quickly but was left without cover early, forged to the front at the 700m and was run down late when second behind Tap To Pay at Echuca. He did lead throughout at a Shepparton victory in September and is a good chance of finding the lead again so he must be included amongst the leading chances. FLIP A COIN (8) worked hard mid-race to find the lead and proved to be too strong at Shepparton two starts ago. He raced out three horses wide for nearly the entire of the last lap when a creditable fourth at Echuca last week and should be competitive again. LEONARD (7) is widely drawn but will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment and is not without a chance.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 1
SELECTIONS: CHAINSMOKE (5), KRAKEY (4), FLIP A COIN (8), LEONARD (7)
RATINGS: 4,5/ 8/ 7/ 6/ 1,3
SUGGESTED BET: CHAINSMOKE (5) each way
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: WHERES WOOD WOOD (8) trailed the leader and appeared to have her chance when second behind Arraps at Echuca last week but this is an easier race. She follows out behind a good beginner and is capable of going one better here. OUR MYSTERY BET (7) progressed forward to race without cover and battled on well for fourth behind Flip A Coin last outing. He was finishing off well from back in the field at his previous performances and he is a winning chance despite his horror run with the barrier draw continuing here. ALTATUDE (1) has been safely held in her three efforts since resuming but she showed very good gate speed from a wide draw and ended up being behind the leader when she won at Shepparton on July 01 so a forward showing is expected from the pole position. SHEZABLUECHIP (4) has claims along with LITTLE WHIPPET (6).
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 4,5
SELECTIONS: WHERES WOOD WOOD (8), OUR MYSTERY BET (7), ALTATUDE (1), SHEZABLUECHIP (4)
RATINGS: 7/ 1,7/ 4/ 6/ 5
SUGGESTED BET: WHERES WOOD WOOD (8) each way
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: REGAL ROCK (3) performs best when he is able to lead over the sprint distance so he has the conditions to suit him here. He hasn’t been drawn on the front line for a long time so he is capable of improving on his numerical form. ART ON FIRE (1) has been safely held at his four starts since returning from a Queensland campaign but he should gain the perfect trip behind the leader from the pole position so he gets his chance to improve. MYNAMEISRUBY (8) won from behind the leader at Bendigo two starts ago. She is drawn to gain an economical run on the markers again and should be hitting the line strongly via the sprint lane. LORIMERMAJOR (7) disappointed at Echuca last outing but he has won eight races for the season and strikes a suitable assignment now so he is worth another chance.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 1,6
SELECTIONS: REGAL ROCK (3), ART ON FIRE (1), MYNAMEISRUBY (8), LORIMERMAJOR (7)
RATINGS: 3/ 1,8/ 7/ 6/ FIELD
SUGGESTED BET: REGAL ROCK (3) to win
