Form Analysis by Craig Rail
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: BULLETPROOF BOY (9) is awkwardly drawn on the second line but the grand old campaigner continues to race in great form and should run another brave race. He tried hard when third behind CODE BAILEY (10) in a super mile rate of 1.50.5 at his latest attempt and he did defeat the champion pacer Leap To Fame in the Smoken Up Sprint on October 11. DANGEROUS (1) is better than his numerical form suggests and he is drawn to suit his racing pattern so he is worth a ticket each way. CODE BAILEY (10) is shooting for a winning hat trick against the open grade and he is a chance of completing the task but he does drop back to the second line this evening. MACH DAN (11) is a genuine front running pacer so being drawn on the second line is a disadvantage but he should be getting fitter after having two starts back from a spell. UBETCHA TIGERPIE (3) and PLAINS IN HEAVEN (6) are both capable of showing up without surprising.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible leader), 3,4,6
SELECTIONS: BULLETPROOF BOY (9), DANGEROUS (1), CODE BAILEY (10), MACH DAN (11)
RATINGS: 9/ 1,10/ 11/ 3,6
SUGGESTED BET: BULLETPROOF BOY (9) each way
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: NEW SHUFFLE (1) was left stranded without cover and ran a great race for third behind Sao Paulo Simba in his heat performance and he is much better drawn for this assignment so he appears to be a good value bet. ITS CONFIDENTIAL (8) finished third in the Victoria Derby then followed with a strong second in his heat behind Calexico, where he progressed forward from a wide gate and worked hard in the run. He will be relying on NEW SHUFFLE (1) holding a forward position at the start but he should be finishing off strongly. FORTY LOVE (10) produced a game effort when second behind Storms Collide last week and won the South Australian Derby prior. He is a tough competitor and must be included amongst the leading chances. GOLDEN TRIBE (12) has a tough draw to overcome but he was a big winner at Melton two starts ago and was held up for a run at a vital stage when a handy fifth last week. He is worth thought along with RUFF NUT (2) and ZENARIO (4).
EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible leader), 2,6,7
SELECTIONS: NEW SHUFFLE (1), ITS CONFIDENTIAL (8), FORTY LOVE (10), GOLDEN TRIBE (12)
RATINGS: 1/ 8,10/ 4,12/ 2/ 6,7
SUGGESTED BET: NEW SHUFFLE (1) each way
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: CAPTAIN PERFECT (3) finished third in his heat performance behind STORMS COLLIDE (11) but he parked on the outside of the leader throughout and he is a genuine staying type so the slow mid-race tempo probably didn’t suit him. He has fared much better with the barrier draw this evening and is a good chance of finding the lead so he should take beating. STORMS COLLIDE (11) worked to the front and dashed home in slick final sectionals at his latest victory. He also won a heat of the Victoria Derby and he is strong enough to make his presence felt. CALEXICO (4) used the pole position to his advantage and led throughout to win his heat on Saturday night. He is an underrated 3yo that is building up a good record and should be competitive again. VINEY (2) appeared to have his chance after trailing the leader when fifth last week but he is drawn to be in the same position again here so he is capable of filling a place.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible leader), 2,4,6
SELECTIONS: CAPTAIN PERFECT (3), STORMS COLLIDE (11), CALEXICO (4), VINEY (2)
RATINGS: 3/ 11/ 4/ 2/ 6,9
SUGGESTED BET: CAPTAIN PERFECT (3) to win
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: ALIFETIMEFORLIVING (5) pushed forward from the outside of the front line to find the lead and was run down over the latter stages by LET’S GO LORNA (10) when second in her heat. She finished fourth in the Victoria Oaks prior and she is a good chance of finding the lead again so she is capable of going one better. SURFE LA MER (1) will appreciate her best draw for a long time and ran a nice fourth behind Soho Americano in her heat display so she must be included amongst the leading chances. LET’S GO LORNA (10) is out of the former top mare Berisari and was very good in winning her heat after working hard early then being shuffled back in the field mid-race. The barrier draw is no luxury but she rates highly. TIVOLI (11) left a trailing position to move up without cover when a brave third in her heat last week. She is racing in good form and is worth a ticket each way.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely early leader), 3,5
SELECTIONS: ALIFETIMEFORLIVING (5), SURFE LA MER (1), LETS GO LORNA (10), TIVOLI (11)
RATINGS: 1,5/ 10/ 3,8,11/ 7
SUGGESTED BET: ALIFETIMEFORLIVING (5) each way
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: It is an outstanding semi-final for the colts and geldings with many winning chances. SOHO TRUMP (3) remains undefeated in two starts and scorched around the Bendigo circuit at his first run since February to win his heat, recording a scintillating final half of 53.7 seconds. He is a good chance of finding the lead again and will take catching. SEASIDE BOY (5) was heavily supported on the back of his brilliant debut victory but endured a torrid trip when fifth in the heat won by LUVTOBEUPTOME (4). He is a classy colt and is worth another chance. MOONLIGHT MOTH (13) produced a phenomenal performance after making a slow getaway to win the Premiere Stakes in a mile rate of 1.52.3 on October 04. He was always in the second half of the field in his heat performance but sectionally, his run was still very good so he cannot be left out of calculations. LE CARDINAL (1) is a promising maiden with the perfect draw, MOST EXCITING (2) is yet to miss a place in three starts, LUVTOBEUPTOME (4) is shooting for a hat trick and CARDIGAN DAN (10) won the Ballarat Rising Star in July so a good case can be made for the majority of the field.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 1,5,6
SELECTIONS: SOHO TRUMP (3), SEASIDE BOY (5), MOONLIGHT MOTH (13), LE CARDINAL (1)
RATINGS: 3,5/ 13/ 1,2,4/ 10/ 6
SUGGESTED BET: SOHO TRUMP (3) each way
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: SOHO CHARMER (10) produced a massive effort to finish second in his heat. He began quickly to lead, was pressured hard throughout and went down fighting in super time. Considering the mile rate in his heat was 1.53.7 and the other three heats went times of 1.57.1, 1.57.2 and 1.57.8, his effort was the superior of any runner contesting tonight’s two semi-finals, so he should prove hard to beat as long as that effort didn’t take a toll. SOHO PARK AVENUE (7) pushed forward to find the lead and won his heat comfortably last week. He won the Shakamaker Classic prior and finished fifth in the Protostar in July so he warrants respect. USYK (13) faces a negative swing in the barrier draw but he is a speedy pacer, which has had a fruitful season having won six races. He dominated the Youthful Stakes in a mile rate of 1.53.2 on August 23 and he was able to cruise through his heat performance by leading all of the way. MISTER AMERICANO (1) can run a cheeky race from the pole position and the Emma Stewart trained pacers LOWRIDER (6) and SNIPPET (9) both warrant respect.
EARLY SPEED: 4 (possible early leader), 2,6,7
SELECTIONS: SOHO CHARMER (10), SOHO PARK AVENUE (7), USYK (13), MISTER AMERICANO (1)
RATINGS: 10/ 7,13/ 1,6,9/ 2,4,8
SUGGESTED BET: SOHO CHARMER (10) to win
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: ARRHYTHMIA (13) is undefeated from five starts and was driven aggressively from the outside of the front line to find the lead when she easily won her heat last week. She is poorly drawn but she is a chance of keeping her record intact. PRE EMINANT (11) looms as the logical danger. She is shooting for four straight victories and scored comfortably after finding the lead in her heat after being successful in the Tatlow Stakes several weeks prior. CAPTAIN MOLLY (3) finished off best to win in a mile rate of 1.55.8 at Shepparton then pushed forward to find the lead when second in her heat. She is a good chance of finding the lead again so she warrants respect. EYESEALITTLE (7) is terribly drawn but she finished hard when an eye-catching fourth in her heat performance and rates as a value chance. FICTION FILE (5) has claims along with MY BETTOR HALF (8) and BELIEVEITOR NOT (9).
EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 4,5,6
SELECTIONS: ARRHYTHMIA (13), PRE EMINANT (11), CAPTAIN MOLLY (3), EYESEALITTLE (7)
RATINGS: 11,13/ 3/ 7,8,9/ 5/ 2,4
SUGGESTED BET: ARRHYTHMIA (13) to win
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: BEACH DIAMOND (3) ran a great race for second in the Victoria Oaks prior to a dominant win in a heat of this series, where she circled around the field to race without cover at the 1400m and hit the front from the 700m mark. She is likely to find the lead from her good draw and will take catching. LET HER ROLL (6) attempted to lead throughout when second behind SOHO AMERICANO (8) last outing. She boasts the very good strike rate of nine wins from just seventeen starts and should be competitive again. SOHO AMERICANO (8) is racing in fantastic form having won the Victoria Oaks and a heat of this series at her past two attempts. She is awkwardly drawn on the inside of the second line behind a moderate beginner and will be giving the leaders a big start but she is going too well to dismiss. BRIGHTON (11) will strip fitter from her first up fourth and has claims along with JOYRIDE (7).
EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 4,6,7
SELECTIONS: BEACH DIAMOND (3), LET HER ROLL (6), SOHO AMERICANO (8), BRIGHTON (11)
RATINGS: 3/ 6,8/ 11/ 7
SUGGESTED BET: BEACH DIAMOND (3) to win
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: STAR TO FALL (8) is a talented filly that has won three of her four starts to date. She settled three back on the markers and finished off hard to win her heat and she is likely to receive a similar trip here from her trailing draw. RIDE THE RHYTHM (1) was very heavily supported at her debut ($1-20 fav) but she endured a tough run and finished in sixth. She performed well at the trials prior and is better drawn for this assignment so she is worth another chance. CONCILIATE (4) was forced to race without cover for the majority of the trip and battled on bravely for third in her heat. She is a fast beginner and hasn’t finished further back than fourth in seven starts to date so she looms as one of the leading chances. ENOLA (2) restrained at the start from a wide draw and finished in eighth position last week. She should be fitter and will settle a lot closer to the speed here so she is a possible improver.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible leader), 4,6
SELECTIONS: STAR TO FALL (8), RIDE THE RHYTHM (1), CONCILIATE (4), ENOLA (2)
RATINGS: 8/ 1,4/ 2,6
SUGGESTED BET: STAR TO FALL (8) to win
