Form Analysis by Tim O'Connor

The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm computer generated price based on a range of key form factors and are not
necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licensed bookmaker.

Race 1:

OVERVIEW: Typically difficult low-grade event to start the night here, but I really think QUICK DECISION (9) is poised to run well second start back from a break. She pulled hard first-up at Hamilton on Sunday in a stronger race on paper than this and was in crowded room going to the line while only being beaten 4.3m. She was badly held up and should have won the start before that back at Ararat on October 27. Gets a nice draw to run well. There’s stacks of other winning chances and it will likely come down to luck in running, but ZU HOFFEN (7) showed electric speed to lead last time out at Melton and the fence is always a huge advantage here at Geelong, while KARDESLER (6), FREAK OUT (8) and GOZO MAJOR (12) head the other leading contenders.

BACK: QUICK DECISION (9) – 1 unit (each-way)

SELECTIONS: QUICK DECISION (9), ZU HOFFEN (7), KARDESLER (6), FREAK OUT (8)

Race 2:

OVERVIEW: WILD BULL (4) is a talented but quirky pacer, who produced an incredible run at Hamilton last weekend when third to the very smart Metro Assassin. He sat three wide for the trip until being inconvenienced back to last at the corner, then charged late to finish just 1.3m behind the winner. He smashed the track record at Swan Hill back in late October and I fancy his best is good enough to take a race like this. Plenty of winning hopes, though, with CAN BE A RUEBE (10) dropping back from the Vicbred series and a solid third to Platinum Jive last time out and CARRRAMAR TITMUS (6) fronting up from a Melton flop after having strong winning form prior. MONTANA PRIDE (1) has been going super in easier races and gets the nice pole draw, while MY LITTLE BO (8) and RUBY WINGATE (9) also have strong claims.

SELECTIONS: WILD BULL (4), CAN BE A RUEBE (10), MONTANA PRIDE (1), MY LITTLE BO (8)

Race 3:

OVERVIEW: BELIEVEITOR NOT (13) has a very difficult barrier for this maiden, but looks to have found a suitable event to land her first career win. She hails from the powerhouse Emma Stewart stable and drops back from contesting the Vicbred and Breeders Crown series, where she was competitive. No moral given the gate, but has to go on top given her strong formlines. Thought ROMAN CHARLIE (8) might be one at big odds that could run well after catching the eye last time out when second at Ballarat. He sustained a wide run for the last lap there and recorded the best last half of 56.32 in what was a super effort. LE GASTON (5) is belting the door down for a win after three runner-up efforts to start his career and HELLO POSSUMS (11) has been good in both races this campaign.

SELECTIONS: BELIEVEITOR NOT (13), ROMAN CHARLIE (8), LE GASTON (5), HELLO POSSUMS (11)

Race 4:

OVERVIEW: FOUROUTOFFIVE (9) has been in really solid form this campaign, which has been bookended by a first-up win at Melton and a narrow runner-up placing in last Sunday’s Hamilton Trotters Cup when he came from well back to just miss. He looks to be the horse racing the best at the moment and should get a nice run from barrier nine. There appears to be plenty of chances, with ALDEBARAN BROOKE (2) one of the gate speed runners who finished second to the smart El Resamo here a while back with good gaps behind him, MYSTERY FRED (6) bringing some okay runs behind Group 1 gun Mecarno to the table and the lightly-raced RUBYS DREAM (8) likely to get a nice run on the fence first-up from a break. CHAMPAGNE CHARLEY (10) might be next best.

BACK: FOUROUTOFFIVE (9) – 1 unit (win)

SELECTIONS: FOUROUTOFFIVE (9), ALDEBARAN BROOKE (2), MYSTERY FRED (6), RUBYS DREAM (8)

Race 5:

OVERVIEW: Looks a bit of speed on paper here, with MAXY BOMBER (2), IM WESLEY (4) and JUSJOHN (6) the likely horses to press forward early. The latter I think is a chance of finding the top and would be a great winning prospect if he could do so. He led and won two starts ago despite copping pressure at Cranbourne and was brave in defeat at Melton last time when only nailed late in a 56.5 last half. LAMBRO MACH (8) finally broke through for new connections at Melton on NYE despite being hampered and last at the bell there, TORQUE POWER (7) has a bad gate but ran well in a hot Vicbred heat a while back as well as his two most recent starts, while the in-form WRITTEN IN SILK (9) was brave running second in the same race TORQUE POWER (7) ran third in last weekend. The consistent MAXY BOMBER (2) can find the pegs and figure in the finish.

SELECTIONS: JUSJOHN (6), TORQUE POWER (7), LAMBRO MACH (8), MAXY BOMBER (2)

Race 6:

OVERVIEW: Incredibly difficult race given every single runner has broken up at least once in their last five starts, and on more occasions for most. That said, BAR TAB (8) is perhaps the horse with the most scope here and brings winning form to the table from NYE. There, he produced a big finale to beat Piesridingshotgun and before that ran very well in a $20,000 race behind Dance Fighter. HAPPY ESCAPE (1) looks ready to break through after three-straight runner-up placings. Last weekend, he led and ran a brave second with a huge gap back to third. BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE (3) made a mistake first-up but has good ability, SILENT REVERIE (5) might have the gate speed to cross and give a good sight, NOBLE COUNT (9) is often thereabouts, while a faultless display from SPIRITED LASS (10) or SCAR (6) could see them win.

SELECTIONS: BAR TAB (8), HAPPY ESCAPE (1), BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE (3), SPIRITED LASS (10)

Race 7:

OVERVIEW: BREATHE EASY (1) has won both his starts since joining the Basil Dooley stable and they’ve been very good efforts for this type of grade. He looks well placed to make it three victories in succession, particularly if he can hold the front. BREAK MY ART (8) might get the gun run behind the top pick and has been solid in slick enough races his last two, while JANIEBQUICK (7) is dropping back from the Vicbred Super Series, which she contested competitively and even reached the $100,000 final. This is obviously much easier, but she is only a winner of three of her 23 career starts and the barrier is tricky. LIVERMERE (2) is racing well and does have gate speed, with FOREGONE CONCLUSION (5) also a factor.

BACK: BREATHE EASY (1) – 4 units (win)

SELECTIONS: BREATHE EASY (1), BREAK MY ART (8), LIVERMERE (2), JANIEBQUICK (7)

Race 8:

OVERVIEW: Don’t love the likely map for WHISKEYDRINKINGBILL (6), but he’s always shown some ability and happy to take a chance first-up on the back of a nice trial against much stronger opposition on January 6. TOO THE MAX (3) will likely charge for the front and did lead all the way to win here – beating HUXHAM CHUBB (4) –  in December, ADMIRALOFTHEFLEET (8) was shooting for three-straight wins at Charlton last time from a horrible barrier, and after galloping turning for home did really well to only be beaten 13.1m, while HUXHAM CHUBB (4) is the other major winning hope given her strong recent form.

BACK: WHISKEYDRINKINGBILL (6) – 1 unit (each-way)

SELECTIONS: WHISKEYDRINKINGBILL (6), TOO THE MAX (3), ADMIRALOFTHEFLEET (8), HUXHAM CHUBB (4)

Race 9:

OVERVIEW: Looks a good race for the Leilani Justice stable here, with WICHITA KANSAS (6) and SHIRALEE (4) the favoured chances. The two stablemates clashed at Maryborough on Monday, with WICHITA KANSAS (6) trapped wide early and forced back to last before scooting up the inside to finish fifth, just 6.6m from the winner. It was a big run. SHIRALEE (4) was brave from the death in third and was a big winner at Melton back on January 2, so should go close. YANKEE RAIN (8), MUSELET (5) and WOODLEA DIEGO (2) rate as outside chances.

BACK: WICHITA KANSAS (6) – 1 unit (win)

 

SELECTIONS: WICHITA KANSAS (6), SHIRALEE (4), YANKEE RAIN (8), MUSELET (5)