Form Analysis by Craig Rail
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: CELESTIAL NEBULAE (3) is a former South Australian pacer, which hasn’t raced since December. He performed very nicely when a comfortable Bendigo trial winner two weeks ago and he should prove hard to beat from his ideal draw. FIANO (9) joins trainer Alex Ashwood and will appreciate a drop back in class on her recent performances. She was a winner at Albury three starts ago and should be competitive against this line up. LOYOLA SPIAGGIA (8) began quickly to find the lead and recorded a slick mile rate of 1.55.3 when he won at Swan Hill three starts ago. He joins trainer Boris Devcic and is worth thought on his Mildura debut. The South Australian visitor MODSQUAD (2) possesses early speed and has been performing consistently so he warrants respect.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible leader), 2,
SELECTIONS: CELESTIAL NEBULAE (3), FIANO (9), LOYOLA SPIAGGIA (8), MODSQUAD (2)
RATINGS: 3/ 8,9/ 2/ 6
SUGGESTED BET: CELESTIAL NEBULAE (3) to win
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: EYESEALITTLE (2) is a nicely bred first starter for trainer Aaron Dunn, which finished third behind Maxbeca in fast time at a recent trial performance. She strikes a suitable race first up and must be respected. SMASHED IT (10) settled midfield and finished off well for second behind Jindalea Jack at Bendigo on Wednesday night. He is racing well and is getting closer to a win. NOELS GIFT (11) is a first starter for trainer Andrew German, which was a runaway trial winner at Mildura recently albeit in slow time. He is awkwardly drawn but must be kept safe. LIVELY JOE (7) and ONLY SON (8) are racing well enough to be worth thought in multiple combinations.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 1
SELECTIONS: EYESALITTLE (2), SMASHED IT (10), NOELS GIFT (11), ONLY SON (8)
RATINGS: 2/ 10/ 8,11/ 7/ 1
SUGGESTED BET: EYESALITTLE (2) to win
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: LITTLE LOUIE (8) is a tough campaigner and will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment. He has been placed in all of his five starts at Mildura previously (3 wins) and is very versatile. MAXY WANTS TO PLAY (5) has won two of his past three starts and led throughout when a convincing winner at Mildura last week. He is likely to be driven in a forward manner and should make his presence felt. SANTA CASA BEACH (9) was resuming since December 2021 when he led throughout to win at Horsham last outing. It was an outstanding training effort by David Wills to get him to win first up and he must be considered as a winning chance again. RIO ROCK (7) and POWERSOFPERSUASION (10) are both racing well enough to figure in the finish.
EARLY SPEED: 5 (possible leader), 1
SELECTIONS: LITTLE LOUIE (8), MAXY WANTS TO PLAY (5), SANTA CASA BEACH (9), RIO ROCK (7)
RATINGS: 5,8/ 9/ 7,10/ 1
SUGGESTED BET: LITTLE LOUIE (8) to win
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: MIKI B (8) is a smart former New Zealand pacer, which competed against the best of his age group across the Tasman. He produced a very good performance when a comfortable winner at his Australian debut and should give a bold showing again. RUFF NUT (9) competed in a heat of the Victoria Derby at Melton last week so he will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment. He won at Metropolitan level and recorded a mile rate of 1.54.7 at Melton three starts ago so he should prove very hard to beat under these conditions. ZENARIO (7) settled in a rearward position and finished off boldly when an eye-catching second behind Fire Marshall at Bendigo when resuming. He should be fitter from that run and will be hitting the line strongly again. WILLIAMS (5) is racing consistently and returns to trainer Alex Ashwood after a stint in New South Wales. He is worth thought along with the tough competitor TO THE NINES (6).
EARLY SPEED: 5 (possible leader), 3,4,6
SELECTIONS: MIKI B (8), RUFF NUT (9), ZENARIO (7), WILLIAMS (5)
RATINGS: 8,9/ 7/ 5/ 6
SUGGESTED BET: MIKI B (8) to win
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: HUNGRY HOGARTH (3) is a tough competitor and will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment so he should go well. He recorded a slick mile rate of 1.56.4 when he scored at Melton two starts ago, which is a strong form pointer for this event. CHEERS POVERTY (5) is a fast beginner and is racing in peak form. He left a trailing position to move up without cover when second behind I’m Alright Jack last outing. He is likely to run his usual honest race despite the wide draw. CAMNAT (2) was driven aggressively and was a strong winner at Mildura three starts ago. She finished fifth at Kilmore last outing and is likely to find this assignment to be more suitable. FLYIN TOMMY (6) is racing well enough to feature prominently and CRUZ WITH ROME (7) should be fitter after his first up third.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible leader), 1,2,5,6
SELECTIONS: HUNGRY HOGARTH (3), CHEERS POVERTY (5), CAMNAT (2), FLYIN TOMMY (6)
RATINGS: 3/ 2,5/ 6/ 7/ 9
SUGGESTED BET: HUNGRY HOGARTH (3) to win
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: KEAYANG CRIPPA (3) finished off best from midfield when he scored comfortably at Mildura two starts ago. He was beaten into seventh last outing but the time was fast and he is worth another chance. EGBERT (9) races best when he is able to lead but he is racing in peak form and should be competitive. He settled midfield on the markers and finished off strongly when third behind Lilstrepo at Mildura last outing. NEVS DREAM (4) commenced from the outside of the front line and settled in the second half of the field when she finished off fairly well for fifth (6m) behind Sloanie Bel last outing. She hasn’t won a race since May 2023 but that victory did come at Mildura and she performed well enough last time to warrant respect. ROBERT CROCKA (2) is likely to lead out then take cover so he should receive every chance. He does tend to perform best over the sprint distance but he cannot be left out of calculations.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 3,6
SELECTIONS: KEAYANG CRIPPA (3), EGBERT (9), NEVS DREAM (4), ROBERT CROCKA (2)
RATINGS: 3,9/ 4/ 2/ 7,8
SUGGESTED BET: KEAYANG CRIPPA (3) to win
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: IM STUCK MAN (8) is backing up quickly from his effort at Swan Hill on Friday but he is a very tough competitor and is racing in peak form so he must be considered as a winning chance. He raced on the outside of the leader and proved to be too strong for Avoca Blues in a handy mile rate of 1.58.4 at Mildura on October 07. STARVIN MARVIN (2) is also backing up quickly from Swan Hill but he is racing consistently and is drawn to receive every chance so he is worth a ticket each way. IM ALRIGHT JACK (3) pushed forward to find the lead and proved to be too strong at Mildura last week. He is a good chance of finding the lead again and is worth thought. RIMU VALLEY (6) was resuming since April when he attempted to lead throughout and finished third at Globe Derby. He should be fitter from that run and is not without a chance.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 4,6
SELECTIONS: IM STUCK MAN (8), STARVIN MARVIN (2), IM ALRIGHT JACK (3), RIMU VALLEY (6)
RATINGS: 8/ 2,3/ 6/ 4,5
SUGGESTED BET: IM STUCK MAN (8) to win
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: RONZEL MICKY (2) is drawn to suit her racing pattern and ran a good race for second behind Lilstrepo in fast time at Mildura last week. She performs best over the sprint distance and should make her presence felt. GLITZY ALL OVER (7) settled three back on the markers, angled wide on the home turn and finished off well for second behind Better Blue Boys last outing. She is racing in career best form and should be finishing off strongly. HESASTAR (8) is racing consistently against similar opposition and is versatile enough to overcome the draw. CALF PEN (6) finished off best from midfield to score at Mildura on September 23. He has a tough draw to overcome but he cannot be left out of calculations.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 2,5
SELECTIONS: RONZEL MICKY (2), GLITZY ALL OVER (7), HESASTAR (8), CALF PEN (6)
RATINGS: 2/ 7,8/ 6/ 3,4
SUGGESTED BET: RONZEL MICKY (2) each way
