Form Analysis by Craig Rail

Race 1:

 

OVERVIEW: SWISS LIGHTNING (1) finished off best to win at Terang then sustained a long run out three horses wide in the final lap at his latest strong second. He is ideally drawn for this assignment and is capable of going one better. NOTHING SWEETER (11) was driven aggressively to move up without cover mid-race and went down fighting when a narrow second in the Maryborough heat won by FAVOURITEHIGHLIGHT (6). She is awkwardly drawn again but is racing well enough to figure in the finish. HOME AND DRY (9) pushed forward to find the lead and dashed home in a slick last half to win at Swan Hill two starts ago. He began like a rocket from the outside of the front line to lead and peaked late when fourth in his heat. He drops back to a trailing draw now and is worth a ticket each way. WHERES WOOD WOOD (2) is a fast beginner and is worth thought along with FAVOURITEHIGHLIGHT (6) and SALSBOY (8).

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 1,6

SELECTIONS: SWISS LIGHTNING (1), NOTHING SWEETER (11), HOME AND DRY (9), SALSBOY (8)

RATINGS: 1,11/ 9/ 2,6,8/ 4,7,12

SUGGESTED BET: SWISS LIGHTNING (1) to win

 

Race 2:

 

OVERVIEW: ORSINO BELLE (5) should be reaching her peak form after having two starts since a spell. She met a strong field and was placed after receiving an economical trip at Maryborough last outing. She should go well against this class. JET TO HEAVEN (13) is resuming since a sixth at Globe Derby in July, where he was vying for the lead but galloped on the first corner and lost his chance. He won a trial over stable mate RANDOM MAHONEY (11) in handy time last week so he can improve on his numerical form. LIFE ONA HIGHWAY (8) and RANDOM MAHONEY (11) are also newcomers to trainer Julie Douglas and performed well at the trials last week so they are worth thought. CAPTAIN GRIN (4) is a first starter for trainer Rebecca Bartley, which has been unplaced in two trial efforts but must be kept safe.

 

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible leader), 4,6

SELECTIONS: ORSINO BELLE (5), JET TO HEAVEN (13), RANDOM MAHONEY (11), LIFE ONA HIGHWAY (8)

RATINGS: 5/ 13/ 8,11/ 4/ 1

SUGGESTED BET: ORSINO BELLE (5) each way

 

Race 3:

 

OVERVIEW: MACHO MAORI (5) has returned from a break in fantastic form and looms as the horse to beat again. He shot to the lead from a wide draw and was run down late by Faith Full (won again since) in the last stride at his latest second. RAKERO WARRIOR (11) looms as the logical danger. He has been placed in six of his past seven starts (4 wins) and produced a big finishing burst to win comfortably at Swan Hill last outing. KARBINE (10) is racing well and deserves to break through for a win. He finished off well for a handy third behind Rarity Rock at his latest attempt. PIESRIDINGSHOTGUN (6) returns to Victoria after enjoying a lot of success in South Australia. He possesses early speed and should be competitive if he is somewhere near his peak.

 

EARLY SPEED: 5 (possible leader), 4,6

SELECTIONS: MACHO MAORI (5), RAKERO WARRIOR (11), KARBINE (10), PIESRIDINGSHOTGUN (6)

RATINGS: 5,11/ 10/ 6/ 1,4

SUGGESTED BET: MACHO MAORI (5) to win

 

Race 4:

 

OVERVIEW: CEE CEE LOU (11) settled in a rearward position, gained a trail into the race until sustaining a strong run from the 600m when a convincing winner at Bendigo last week. He gets into this race nicely with a concession claim and must be considered as a winning chance again. CHIRRIPO (10) performed nicely at the trials prior to a first up second behind Major Manbar, where she led out then took cover. She should strip fitter from her first up performance and she has been competitive at a higher level previously. STARZINHEREYES (4) has struck peak form with successive victories, the latest being over Karuma Kev at Echuca, where she led out then took cover. This is a field of more depth but another bold showing is expected. LOCHIEL LAD (9) will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment and he didn’t have a great deal of luck in the straight when seventh last outing so he can improve on his numerical form.

 

EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 1,3

SELECTIONS: CEE CEE LOU (11), CHIRRIPO (10), STARZINHEREYES (4), LOCHIEL LAD (9)

RATINGS: 11/ 4,10/ 9/ 1,7,8/ 6

SUGGESTED BET: CEE CEE LOU (11) to win

 

Race 5:

 

OVERVIEW: RUBY WINGATE (9) is the class horse of the series and she produced a big performance to win her heat in a mile rate of 1.54.7, where nothing really went right in the run but she was still able to draw clear at the finish. She is clearly the horse to beat again. ILLAWONG PHOENIX (3) is racing in career best form having won four of her past five starts. She angled in behind the leader, came to the outside on the home turn and dominated her rivals to win the Echuca heat. OLIVIA ROSE (5) performed below expectations at Echuca but she has enjoyed a fruitful season having won five races and she might be better suited to competing on the more spacious Bendigo circuit. She is capable of sustaining a long sprint in the final circuit. SHE HAUNTS EM (10) was confidently supported in the Echuca heat but she endured a tough run in fast time and ended up finishing in fifth. She is worth another chance.

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 2,3,4

SELECTIONS: RUBY WINGATE (9), ILLAWONG PHOENIX (3), OLIVIA ROSE (5), SHE HAUNTS EM (10)

RATINGS: 9/ 3/ 5,10/ 1,6,11

SUGGESTED BET: RUBY WINGATE (9) to win

 

Race 6:

 

OVERVIEW: BIG RIG SAINT (10) was severely checked at the start and did a big job to finish as close he did when sixth at Melton last outing. He defeated Direct Command (won since) at Shepparton prior so he should prove hard to beat here. YANKEE GAMBLER (8) has been forced to park without cover at three of his past four starts and has still maintained a consistent form line. He is awkwardly drawn but this is a drop back in class and he deserves to break through for a win. KIMCHI (7) has been placed at her past five attempts against similar opposition and should go well again. She worked home reasonably well from midfield when third behind Follow The Eclipse at Ballarat last outing. FAKE CULLECTION (9) performs best when she is able to lead so being drawn on the second line is a disadvantage but she is racing too well to dismiss.

 

EARLY SPEED: 3 (possible leader), 1,4,6

SELECTIONS: BIG RIG SAINT (10), YANKEE GAMBLER (8), KIMCHI (7), FAKE CULECTION (9)

RATINGS: 10/ 7,8/ 9/ 1,3,6

SUGGESTED BET: BIG RIG SAINT (10) to win

 

Race 7:

 

OVERVIEW: EMJAY JAZZ (4) finished second behind Jimmy Breeze in a mile rate of 1.56.9 at Bendigo then moved forward to race without cover when a narrow second behind Altius at Bendigo. She is racing in good form and is ready to break through for a win. SHAQ (7) will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment and he is likely to improve on his numerical form. He has won twelve races at Bendigo previously and he is versatile enough to overcome the wide draw. MAYWYNS JEWEL (5) is a fast beginner and performs best when she is able to lead. She led and finished third in a handy mile rate of 1.55.8 at Bendigo on August 20. DIRECT COMMAND (8) began quickly to find the lead and was able to fend off the challengers to score at Ballarat last outing. He is worth thought along with BRUISED EGO (10).

 

EARLY SPEED: 5 (likely leader), 1,2,4

SELECTIONS: EMJAY JAZZ (4), SHAQ (7), MAYWYNS JEWEL (5), DIRECT COMMAND (8)

RATINGS: 4,7/ 5/ 8,10/ 11

SUGGESTED BET: EMJAY JAZZ (4) each way

 

Race 8:

 

OVERVIEW: QUEEN KIZEN (6) is closely related to the great mare Queen Elida and performed nicely when second behind Pinnie at a Melton trial effort last week. She competed at Group 3 level in New Zealand last outing so she appears to be well graded in this event. BULLPARK BENO (5) was held up behind tiring horses and finished off well once he gained a clear passage when an unlucky third at Bendigo last outing. He led throughout at Bendigo three starts ago and he looms as one of the main chances again. DEEJAY DEX (9) is resuming since October but he has the ability to be competitive if he is somewhere near his peak form. OX KNOX (4) is racing in good form and has claims along with EVERYBODYLOVESME (8).  

 

 

EARLY SPEED: 6 (possible leader), 1,4,5

SELECTIONS: QUEEN KIZEN (6), BULLAPARK BENO (5), DEEJAY DEX (9), OX KNOX (4)

RATINGS: 5,6/ 9/ 4,8

SUGGESTED BET: QUEEN KIZEN (6) to win