Form Analysis by Craig Rail

Race 1:

 

OVERVIEW: SIR JIMMY (11) didn’t perform up to expectations in the Melton Plate but he quickly bounced back with a big win over Look Like Diamonds in a mile rate of 1.54.0 at Melton last outing. He is building up a very good strike rate and must be respected. SMOKEN ACE (6) ran a top race for second behind the smart pacer Fighter Command at Melton last outing. He defeated First Dance (won since) at a Melton victory on March 15 and will take beating, particularly if he can find the lead. INVITATION ONLY (3) tried to sustain a long run when a bold second behind SWEETPASSION (7) last week. He is much better drawn for this assignment so he can be competitive again. LE BELLE BIJOUX (2) will appreciate her best draw for some time and rates as a value hope. There are many other chances in a quality field to commence the program.

 

EARLY SPEED: 6 (possible leader), 2,3,7

SELECTIONS: SIR JIMMY (11), SMOKEN ACE (6), INVITATION ONLY (3), LE BELLE BIJOUX (2)

RATINGS: 11/ 6/ 2,3,8/ 9,12/ FIELD

SUGGESTED BET: SMOKEN ACE (6) each way

 

Race 2:

 

OVERVIEW: BROWNIESATMIDNIGHT (11) was resuming since October when he produced a big finish to score in a slick mile rate of 1.53.8 at Ballarat on April 17. He is stepping up in grade but there are several fast beginners drawn on the front line and a genuine early tempo will be an aid to his chances. TRIPLE ROCK SAINT (12) will appreciate a decent drop back in class for this assignment and he was heavily supported when second behind Edwarde Grange at Melton on March 29 so he warrants respect. GOLDEN TRIBE (6) is a smart 3yo pacer, which has won three of his six starts for the season. He led throughout and recorded a strong mile rate of 1.54.0 last outing and will take catching if he can get across to the markers shortly after the start. THE IRON DUKE (1) is likely to be headed off at the start but he is a very strong pacer, which produced a big effort when third behind UBETTA KNOT (10) last week so he cannot be underestimated.

 

 

EARLY SPEED: 5 (possible leader), 2,4,6

SELECTIONS: BROWNIESATMIDNIGHT (11), TRIPLE ROCK SAINT (12), GOLDEN TRIBE (6), THE IRON DUKE (1)

RATINGS: 11/ 6,12/ 1,10/ 8

SUGGESTED BET: BROWNIESATMIDNIGHT (11) each way

 

Race 3:

 

OVERVIEW: CLYMENUS (4) settled in the second half of the field and finished off strongly when a big third behind First Dance in a mile rate of 1.53.0 last week. He has had a lot of chances recently but he is a big winning hope if can repeat his latest performance. THEANSWER (5) came from last when an eye-catching third behind Ferrigno at her first run since October. She finished eighth in the Victoria Oaks prior and will prove hard to beat against this line up. HEZ ALL ROCK (1) progressed forward to race without cover and battled on well for third at Melton last week. He is much better drawn for this assignment and is tough enough to feature prominently. MY ULTIMATE BARNEY (8) hasn’t been at his best form in four starts for the season but he won six races at top level during his juvenile season so he cannot be discarded.  

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 2,3,6

SELECTIONS: CLYMENUS (4), THEANSWER (5), HEZ ALL ROCK (1), MY ULTIMATE BARNEY (8)

RATINGS: 4,5/ 1,8/ 12/ 2,6,7

SUGGESTED BET: CLYMENUS (4) each way

 

Race 4:

 

OVERVIEW: GATESYS GEM (1) was runner up in the Breeders Crown Final then followed with a win in the Graeme Lang Trot before being sent for a spell. She has been performing well at the trials, with her latest effort being a success at Geelong, so she must be respected. COMMODUS (8) was able to brush past GATESYS GEM (1) when an impressive trial winner at Melton but he disappointed when resuming, where he was trotting roughly throughout and never appeared to be comfortable. He was competitive at Group 1 level last season and he will take a lot of beating if he can bounce back into his best form. TRACY THE JET (3) continues to improve with the benefit of racing and recorded a handy mile rate of 1.58.3 after working to the front mid-race when she defeated Jack Sprat at her latest attempt. She is meeting a couple of very good horses here but she cannot be underestimated. PROHIBITED GRACE (4), NO MONEY NO HONEY (5) and SASSY GALLEON (11) are all worth thought in multiple combinations.

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 2,3,4

SELECTIONS: GATESYS GEM (1), COMMODUS (8), TRACY THE JET (3), SASSY GALLEON (11)

RATINGS: 1,8/ 3/ 5,11/ 4

SUGGESTED BET: Trifecta 1,8/ 1,8/ 3,4,5,11 (Cost $10)

 

Race 5:

 

OVERVIEW: METEOR MOTH (4) has been narrowly beaten as favourite in his two starts since resuming from a South Australian Derby victory but this appears to be his chance to break through. He is a good chance of finding the lead and has built up the impressive strike rate of six wins from nine starts. MY UNCLE STAN (5) went to the line jogging with no clear run and should have gone close to winning at Melton last week. He hasn’t had much luck in three starts since an impressive Melton victory on March 08 and is worth another chance. ROSANNA REBEL (9) was also in restricted room and did well at his latest fourth. He should be fitter from that performance and is not to be underestimated. VEE EM GEE MACRAY (2), CRIME WRITER (8), NEW YORKER (10) and EDWARDE GRANGE (11) are all capable of showing up without surprising.

 

EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 2,3,6

SELECTIONS: METEOR MOTH (4), MY UNCLE STAN (5), ROSANNA REBEL (9), VEE EM GEE MACRAY (2)

RATINGS: 4/ 5,9/ 2,8/ 10/ 11

SUGGESTED BET: METEOR MOTH (4) to win

 

Race 6:

 

OVERVIEW: MITCHELL WRAP (4) was shuffled back on the markers and ran a reasonable race for fourth behind Keayang Lavita at Melton last outing. He possesses a powerful finishing burst and scored at Melton on March 15 so he must be considered as a winning chance. AARDIES PEAK (1) missed the start and produced a big performance to win at Melton two starts ago then broke stride when commencing a forward move when she was unplaced last week. She has gait issues but she is a very smart mare when she puts it altogether so she must be respected. LADY IN THE SKY (5) is a fast beginner and is trotting in peak form. She defeated Strzelecki Sun (won since) at Cranbourne three starts ago and should give another bold showing here. BOUTIKA (8) and ALDEBARAN DEMI (9) are both racing well enough to feature prominently.

 

EARLY SPEED: 5 (likely leader), 2,3

SELECTIONS: MITCHELL WRAP (4), AARDIES PEAK (1), LADY IN THE SKY (5), ALDEBARAN DEMI (9)

RATINGS: 4/ 1,5/ 8,9/ 7

SUGGESTED BET: MITCHELL WRAP (4) each way

 

Race 7:

 

OVERVIEW: SOAP AND BUBBLES (2) has led throughout at her past two Bendigo victories and comfortably won the Preview of this series in a mile rate of 1.55.3 so she is clearly the horse to beat. TIVOLI (3) took the trail behind SOAP AND BUBBLES (2) and had every chance for second when resuming. She went into that race being first up without a trial so she should be a lot sharper for that performance and is worth following. FORESIGHT (1) was three back on the markers and finished third in the Preview. She is perfectly drawn so she can be placed again. SASSY GABBY (5) was left stranded without cover throughout in her heat so she is a possible improver.

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 1,3,5

SELECTIONS: SOAP AND BUBBLES (2), TIVOLI (3), FORESIGHT (1), SASSY GABBY (5)

RATINGS: 2/ 1,3/ 5/ 8/ 6,7/ 4

SUGGESTED BET: SOAP AND BUBBLES (2) to win

 

Race 8:

 

OVERVIEW: IM READY JET (7) is returning from a New Zealand campaign, where she struck trouble in the $600,000 Trotting feature. She was in outstanding form in Victoria prior and this is a big drop back in class so she will prove very hard to beat. HARRY STAMPER (3) progressed forward to find the lead and was able to score comfortably at Melton last outing. He has been racing consistently and is a good chance of finding the lead again so he must be considered. WATTS UP PARTYTIME (6) won the Great Southern Star early in the season and he has won four of his past seven starts. He is trotting at his peak form and should go well again. PLYMOUTH CHUBB (1) will appreciate his best draw for a long time and he possesses early speed so can improve on his recent performances.

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely early leader), 2,3,4,6,7

SELECTIONS: IM READY JET (7), HARRY STAMPER (3), WATTS UP PARTYTIME (6), PLYMOUTH CHUBB (1)

RATINGS: 7/ 3/ 1,6/ 4/ 5/ 2

SUGGESTED BET: IM READY JET (7) to win

 

Race 9:

 

OVERVIEW: KEAYANG LAVITA (3) continues to step up in class but she has been very impressive having won six of her past seven starts. She worked forward to find the lead and recorded a slick mile rate of 1.57.4 last outing so she is capable of taking the next step forward. AVANT GUARD (6) pushed around the field to race without cover and battled on bravely when second behind Aldebaran Acrux last week. He is very versatile and is worth thought again. PINNIE (4) commenced from the inside of the second line and had no clear run at the finish when an unlucky sixth at Melton last outing. She secured victory from behind the leader in fast time prior and should be competitive again. ALDEBARAN MILEY (2) used plenty of energy to find the lead from a wide draw last week and peaked late when unplaced behind Aldebaran Acrux. She is much better drawn for this assignment and is not without a chance.

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 1,3,4

SELECTIONS: KEAYANG LAVITA (3), AVANT GUARD (6), PINNIE (4), ALDEBARAN MILEY (2)

RATINGS: 3/ 4,6/ 2/ 1,7

SUGGESTED BET: KEAYANG LAVITA (3) to win