Form Analysis by Luke Humphreys
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: MIDNIGHT PIRATE (7) couldn’t have drawn more awkwardly but it will make him a more backable price. COURTNEY KATARINA (1) led last week so it will be interesting to see if Connor Clarke holds up behind her or takes luck out of the equation. However, he is good enough to make his own luck. KARUMA KEV (9) has been beaten at odds-on his last two but has not been disgraced and is clearly the other main player. Nearly everything else could place and they include RED HOT MIKI (11), MARIAHS SHADOW (2), APOLOGY ACCEPTED (10), HESASTAR (6), COURTNEY KATARINA (1), TO THE NINES (8), LILBITAHENRYTEE (3), BETTER BLUE BOYS (5) and HES A MODERN BOY (4).
EARLY SPEED: 1 (Leader?), 2, 3, 4, 5?
SELECTIONS: MIDNIGHT PIRATE (7), KARUMA KEV (9), RED HOT MIKI (11), MARIAHS SHADOW (2)
RATINGS: 7 / 9 / 11 / 2 / 10 / 6 / 1 / 8 / 3 / 5 / 4 / 12
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi Trifecta 7, 9 / 7, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11 ($36 gets 100%)
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: CREDULOUS (9) is the reserve for the Cup Final so naturally she looks very well placed in this race. However, she will still have to earn it from the second row, but she brings the best form after finishing midfield on Tuesday and prior to that she had not been far away in much better races. This is the easiest race she has run in this year by absolute miles. BEAUTY ABOVE (5) is an interesting runner first-up in the Sunraysia and competed in the South Australian Derby heats last year. WILD IDEAL (6) hasn’t been having much luck but despite the draw rates as highly as any. A ROCKNROLL JET (8) rates next.
EARLY SPEED: 2? 3, 4? 5 (Leader?), 6
SELECTIONS: CREDULOUS (9), BEAUTY ABOVE (5), WILD IDEAL (6), A ROCKNROLL JET (8)
RATINGS: 9 / 5 / 6 / 8 / 10 / 7 / 3 / 2 / 4 / 1 / 11
SUGGESTED BET: CREDULOUS (9) Each-Way
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: COUNTRY ROCKSTAR (10) only beat one home at even money in a race at this level last week from a similar barrier over a similar distance, but he didn’t have the greatest luck and wasn’t beaten far. He was close-up in his first run for the Tormey stable prior and just needs the right run forward to be a chance. JILLIBY CHAMBERS (3) is an interesting runner that won at Port Pirie two back and was fifth to Laylas Princess at Gawler the day prior to that victory. MACHSTIQUE (9) has been in great form this year with three course victories whilst SPRING DELIGHT (1) must be a chance from the draw after his Tuesday effort.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (Leader?), 2, 3, 4? 5?
SELECTIONS: COUNTRY ROCKSTAR (10), JILLIBY CHAMBERS (3), MACHSTIQUE (9), SPRING DELIGHT (1)
RATINGS: 10 / 3 / 9 / 1 / 7 / 4 / 2 / 8 / 5 / 11 / 6
SUGGESTED BET: JILLIBY CHAMBERS (3) Each-Way
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: RONZEL MICKY (7) was able to win at Swan Hill last week after trailing the leader and using the sprint lane to claim victory on the line. That was her fifth run this preparation and she maps to get a similar run in this although she will be relying on a clear run at some point. BEARTASTIC WRITER (1) was well beaten last week but bounced back to his best form to finish second against stronger on Tuesday. He almost led throughout on that occasion and may very well do so this time. GLITZY ALL OVER (9) had no luck on Tuesday and very rarely runs a bad race. IMAGE OF STARZZZ (10) is next best.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (Likely Leader), 3, 4, 5, 6?
SELECTIONS: RONZEL MICKY (7), BEARTASTIC WRITER (1), GLITZY ALL OVER (9), IMAGE OF STARZZZ (10)
RATINGS: 7 / 1 / 9 / 10 / 4 / 2 / 3 / 6 / 5 / 11 / 8
SUGGESTED BET: RONZEL MICKY (7) Each-Way
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: LETSGO BIG GIRL (4) was able to lead throughout to win comfortably on Tuesday and looks a near certainty to lead again so therefore she is going to be extremely hard to catch. She almost won when leading at Birchip three back but found only Im Shadow Boxer narrowly too good who has been a metropolitan performer for several seasons, so she is clearly the one to beat. CENTOFELLIE (1) maps to be leaders back so she will receive every chance. ALWAYS A SHOWMAN (12) has a huge task from his draw but couldn’t have done much more on Tuesday whilst SPIRIT OF SAHARA (9) had her chance on Tuesday but must be given a chance.
EARLY SPEED: 1? 3? 4 (Leader), 5? 6
SELECTIONS: LETSGO BIG GIRL (4), CENTOFELLIE (1), ALWAYS THE SHOWMAN (12), SPIRIT OF SAHARA (9)
RATINGS: 4 / 1 / 12 / 9 / 8 / 6 / 10 / 11 / 7 / 3 / 2 / 5
SUGGESTED BET: CENTOFELLIE (1) Each-Way
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: CATCHAFIRE (3) has a mammoth task to try and beat the free-for-all horses over 2600 metres as a three-year-old having his 10th start but he did enough on Tuesday to be a chance. He had no luck and importantly a soft run whilst all the other main chances had to work at some point. DEE ROE (12) got gifted the front on Tuesday but in what looks a competitive Final he will have to work much harder for the money this time, but he is good enough to do it. YOUNG BLUEY (10) and JOE GOT ROLLED (1) have fantastic chances and CATALPA RESCUE (11) was far from a bad run on Tuesday despite going under.
EARLY SPEED: 1, 3 (Leader), 4? 5? 6?
SELECTIONS: CATCHAFIRE (3), DEE ROE (12), YOUNG BLUEY (10), JOE GOT ROLLED (1)
RATINGS: 3 / 12 / 10 / 1 / 11 / 4 / 9 / 8 / 7 / 6 / 5 / 2
SUGGESTED BET: CATCHAFIRE (3) Each-Way
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: OH SWEET CREATURE (1) has been outstanding since joining Aaron Coad and is clearly the horse to beat after drawing barrier one. In a great front running drive from Wayne Hill last week, she proved far too good and will receive every possible chance to win once more. THEBUCKSONYOU (10) has been an impressive winner in his two career victories which have come from his last two starts. He has a task from the draw but is potentially still good enough. CHOGI (4), OUR MASTER PLAY (7) who draws to receive the perfect trail, EASTBRO JESSE (6), AMERICAN BOXER (3) and the enigmatic but talented pair of FRANKNTANK (12) and CALF PEN (5) can all place.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (Likely Leader), 3, 4
SELECTIONS: OH SWEET CREATURE (1), THEBUCKSONYOU (10), CHOGI (4), OUR MASTER PLAY (7)
RATINGS: 1 / 10 / 4 / 7 / 6 / 3 / 12 / 5 / 11 / 8 / 9
SUGGESTED BET: Flexi First 4 1, 10 / 1, 10 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 12 / 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 12 ($144 gets 100%)
Race 8:
OVERVIEW: UNITED (1) was far too good for each of his nine rivals in the Prelude and will clearly run favourite after drawing position one. It is almost impossible to tip against him although that doesn’t mean there aren’t other chances. HES OLLY (5) naturally needs to behave better than what he did on Tuesday but if he does, he could very well go close as he did start 5/2 favourite in the Prelude and because of his misdemeanour his form from Adelaide was unable to be compared with these rivals and his prior form for Scott Ewen was good. THOMAS HEIGHTS (7) draws perfectly whilst DON ARTHUR (9) will need luck from the second row draw.
EARLY SPEED: 1 (Leader), 2, 4? 5, 6?
SELECTIONS: UNITED (1), HES OLLY (5), THOMAS HEIGHTS (7), DON ARTHUR (9)
RATINGS: 1 / 5 / 7 / 9 / 10 / 8 / 4 / 6 / 3 / 2
SUGGESTED BET: THOMAS HEIGHTS (7) 1x3
Race 9:
OVERVIEW: SKADI (4) broke through at the 33rd time of asking back in January on Wedderburn Cup Day prior to finishing sixth against stronger at Ballarat and then placed at Echuca prior to making a mistake on Boort Cup Day. She finished midfield on Charlton Cup Day and after two recent Maryborough trials is a good chance of winning on Mildura Cup night. BELLA ABBY (7) was one place behind SKADI (4) in the Echuca contest in February so she must rate highly and has been second at this venue in two of her last three. KEAYANG CRIPPA (9) will find this race easier and is never far away whilst TOPZAVSKI (8) must be kept safe.
EARLY SPEED: 1, 2, 4, 5 (Leader?), 6?
SELECTIONS: SKADI (4), BELLA ABBY (7), KEAYANG CRIPPA (9), TOPZAVSKI (8)
RATINGS: 4 / 7 / 9 / 8 / 6 / 10 / 3 / 5 / 1 / 2
SUGGESTED BET: KEAYANG CRIPPA (9) Each-Way
Race 10:
OVERVIEW: MUSTANG DAISY (3) has produced her two best performances at her last two starts coming from miles back to finish second to the subsequent winner Thebucksonyou prior to almost leading throughout last week to once again finish second beaten only a neck. Like last time Alex Ashwood drives so she looks the leader and may very well stay there this time. TRYAGAINFREDDY (5) was much better in a maiden on Charlton Cup Day and was much better again the next time at Swan Hill last week. That form is as good as anything in this. VILLAGE SUSPECT (8) makes her Sunraysia debut after being a late scratching last week and BRING MY BLING (2) draws well.
EARLY SPEED: 2, 3 (Leader), 6?
SELECTIONS: MUSTANG DAISY (3), TRYAGAINFREDDY (5), VILLAGE SUSPECT (8), BRING MY BLING (2)
RATINGS: 3 / 5 / 8 / 2 / 7 / 4 / 6 / 9 / 1
SUGGESTED BET: MUSTANG DAISY (3) Each-Way
