Form Analysis by Craig Rail
Race 1:
OVERVIEW: HOME AND DRY (9) performed below expectations when unplaced at Kilmore last week but his form prior was strong including successive victories at Ballarat and Melton. He follows out behind a fast beginner so he is worth another chance. LAVADA GOLD (12) sprinted quickly from midfield when a good winner over Pickle It at Geelong on Friday. This race is no harder and he should be finishing off swiftly again. SIR NIPPA (2) is a fast beginner and led throughout to defeat Divine Tilly (won since) at Ballarat two starts ago so he is worth an investment. TINSEL TIARA (5) boasts consistent form and has the early speed to be prominent throughout so she must be considered as a winning chance at her first run for trainer Ricky Ryan.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 5
SELECTIONS: HOME AND DRY (9), LAVADA GOLD (12), SIR NIPPA (2), TINSEL TIARA (5)
RATINGS: 9,12/ 2/ 5/ 1,7
SUGGESTED BET: HOME AND DRY (9) each way
Race 2:
OVERVIEW: DELIGHTFUL CHARM (9) was resuming since an unplaced effort in a heat of the Super Series in August when she settled in a rearward position from a poor draw and picked up ground for fifth at Kilmore. She should be fitter from that performance and strikes a suitable assignment now. SOMETUFFLUV (11) led throughout in a heat of the Ararat Cup then copped plenty of pressure in the leading role when unplaced in the Final. He had no luck in fast time last outing so he is worth another chance here despite the poor draw. MONTANA PRIDE (6) went back at the start from a wide alley, settled in a rearward position and was held up behind tiring horses leading up to the home turn so he had little luck at Swan Hill last outing. He finished off quickly to win in a mile rate of 1.57.9 at Ballarat three starts ago so he must be included amongst the leading chances. WICHITA KANSAS (2) and TOP GUN TED (5) are both racing well enough to warrant consideration.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 1,3,5,7
SELECTIONS: DELIGHTFUL CHARM (9), SOMETUFFLUV (11), MONTANA PRIDE (6), WICHITA KANSAS (2)
RATINGS: 9,11/ 6/ 2,5/ 7/ 10
SUGGESTED BET: DELIGHTFUL CHARM (9) each way
Race 3:
OVERVIEW: NEON TIGER (8) has an awkward draw to negotiate but he is ready to break through for a win. He has worked hard at his past two placed efforts behind the handy types in Medina and Harley Lane. ROYAL SAXON (7) was headed off from the pole position at the start and raced very fiercely during the middle stages so he had excuses last outing. He finished off fast from a rearward position when an eye-catching third at Ballarat prior so he is worth another chance. LITTLEBLABBAMOUTH (9) was shuffled back on the markers and angled deep into the sprint lane over the final stages when a handy finishing fourth behind Lady Salina at Geelong on Friday. She is usually competitive against this class and is worth thought from her trailing draw. REGAL ROCK (3) led throughout at a Kilmore victory on January 30. He has been safely held in four starts since but he is a good chance of finding the leading role again here so he cannot be left out of calculations.
EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 4
SELECTIONS: NEON TIGER (8), ROYAL SAXON (7), LITTLEBLABBAMOUTH (9), REGAL ROCK (3)
RATINGS: 8/ 7,9/ 3/ 5/ 10
SUGGESTED BET: NEON TIGER (8) to win
Race 4:
OVERVIEW: CHASING REX (9) has only missed a place once in five starts for the season and he produced a big performance when second in the Ararat Cup two starts ago. He missed out narrowly in a slick mile rate of 1.54.8 at his latest attempt so he is capable of going one better here. NOSWEETSFORYOU (3) began quickly to find the lead, ran along at a genuine tempo and went down fighting when a brave second at Hamilton last outing. She is a very tough mare and is racing in peak form so she is sure to make her presence felt. SPORTSBOU (5) began very quickly to lead and rolled along at a genuine tempo when she scored at Stawell last outing. She has won three of her six starts for the season and is one of the leading chances again. RUEBE STARBUCK (6) was resuming since December when she finished off fast to snare victory over Bulletproof Kid on the line at Cranbourne. She is a versatile mare and should have benefited from her first up victory so she must be respected.
EARLY SPEED: 5 (possible leader), 3,4,6
SELECTIONS: CHASING REX (9), NOSWEETSFORYOU (3), SPORTSBOU (5), RUEBE STARBUCK (6)
RATINGS: 9/ 3,5/ 6/ 10/ 4
SUGGESTED BET: CHASING REX (9) to win
Race 5:
OVERVIEW: MATTYO (4) worked to the front and won comfortably at Stawell then did all of the work in the run and battled on bravely for a close second behind the in-form trotter Blackrange Glory at Hamilton. He is racing in peak form and will prove hard to beat under these conditions. BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE (5) gained a nice trail and finished off best to score over Fling It Rainbow at Bendigo last outing. Her overall form is strong and this race is no harder so she should be competitive again. APEX (2) was resuming since October when he began quickly to lead from a wide draw and fought on well for second at Charlton. He led out then took cover and was held up for a run before the home turn when fifth behind Ringer Wells at Bendigo last week. He should find the markers shortly after the start again this evening so he is worth a ticket each way. SHADOW JUSTICE (8) and AGAINST THE BRIDLE (10) are both racing well enough to figure in the finish.
EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely early leader), 4
SELECTIONS: MATTYO (4), BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE (5), APEX (2), AGAINST THE BRIDLE (10)
RATINGS: 4/ 2,5/ 8,10
SUGGESTED BET: MATTYO (4) to win
Race 6:
OVERVIEW: MUSCLE MEMORY (4) hasn’t raced since breaking stride and finishing a distant fifth in the Nutrien Classic back in August 2023 but he performed very well at a recent Bendigo trial second and she strikes a suitable assignment first up. LADY SUSPICIOUS (5) finished a distant second behind Vulcan Stride in fast time at Stawell then followed with a fourth at Hamilton. She is working into form and should be competitive under these conditions. BLUE SKYE ALM (6) trailed the leader and used the sprint lane when she finished third behind Rockinwithstyle at Geelong last outing. She has shown promise at her first three attempts and is a good chance of finding the lead early so she must be included amongst the leading chances. ALDEBARAN ANTON (8) is resuming since January 2024 but he finished third behind Mecarno at a recent Hamilton trial performance and he has ability when he is able to put it altogether.
EARLY SPEED: 6 (likely early leader), 3,5
SELECTIONS: MUSCLE MEMORY (4), LADY SUSPICIOUS (5), BLUE SKY ALM (6), ALDEBARAN ANTON (8)
RATINGS: 4/ 5,6/ 8/ 2,3
SUGGESTED BET: MUSCLE MEMORY (4) to win
Race 7:
OVERVIEW: JOHNNY REDCOAT (11) usually performs best when he is able to lead or be close to the pace but he will appreciate a significant drop back in class for this assignment so he might be able to overcome the extreme draw. SILVER DOMINO (4) was left stranded without cover and battled on fairly well for fourth behind Shezabluechip at Kilmore last outing. He was runner up under similar conditions three starts ago and looms as one of the leading chances again. REINDER (5) finished seventh at Bendigo last outing but his run was better than it looks on paper. He settled down last of the ten runners and was extremely wide on the home turn, making ground at the end. He has the chance to improve on his numerical form here. BLISSFULL LILLY (6) worked to the front and kicked on well for second at Geelong last outing so she is not without a chance.
EARLY SPEED: 6 (possible leader), 1,4,7
SELECTIONS: JOHNNY REDCOAT (11), SILVER DOMINO (4), REINDER (5), BLISSFULL LILLY (6)
RATINGS: 4,11/ 5,6/ 7
SUGGESTED BET: JOHNNY REDCOAT (11) each way
