Form Analysis by Tim O'Connor

 

Selector: - Tim O’Connor

Race 1:

OVERVIEW: Super start to Shepparton Pacing Cup night with a big field of good pacers over the flying 1690m trip. I’m a member of the GOLDEN TRIBE (12) fan club and keen to be with him here despite the wide back row gate. He has enjoyed a cracking campaign, which saw him progress all the way through to competitive performances in the Group 1 Victoria Derby Final and Group 2 Vicbred Super Series Final. He’s tuned up for this with a Terang trial win and he’s just a genuinely good horse. This won’t be easy, though. THE BRIDE (3) was brilliant back in the care of Alex Ashwood last time and draws to press forward for the front. Very hard to beat if she gets the top. EMILY VINCENT (2) also has early speed and is racing strongly, while HES NO ROMEO (9) is running really well from front row draws of late and just needs to replicate that form to be a factor here.

BACK: GOLDEN TRIBE (12) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: GOLDEN TRIBE (12), THE BRIDE (3), EMILY VINCENT (2), HES NO ROMEO (9)

Race 2:

OVERVIEW: Wide-open event with a stack of differing formlines to try and dissect, so not much would really surprise. FRANCO NOVELIST (13) was first-up for around a year when he dropped out to last on NYE, but has since run very nicely at the Bendigo trials in a slick last half. He’s always shown good ability and is clearly the leading horse on NR here, so I’ll trust that trainer Luke Bryant has him right to go second-up. BIG BAD OSSIE (12) produced a great finale for second first-up in the Cobram Pacing Cup, HERAKLES (10) had a flat tyre there but his prior form is sound, while CLARENDEN EXPRESS (8) is new to the Adam Stephens yard and I liked his effort at Cranbourne when third to Cee Cee Lou. I think a win is near.

BACK: FRANCO NOVELIST (13) – 1 unit (each-way)

SELECTIONS: FRANCO NOVELIST (13), BIG BAD OSSIE (12), HERAKLES (10), CLARENDEN EXPRESS (8)

Race 3:

OVERVIEW: VYTIS (5) was a Group 1 winner as a two-year-old who closed his three-year-old season in really good style with a couple of great runs behind one of the emerging stars of the trotting gait, Mecarno. In one, he flashed home late to be beaten 3.4m and the other he sat parked and was only defeated 8.2m. Before that, he thrashed rivals in the Vicbred Super Series Bronze Final. He’s a good horse on the rise and happy his way. KYVALLEY MAVEN (7) is starting to deliver on his big wraps but does have a tricky gate to deal with, while stablemates FREIGHT SHAKER (8) and SEBASTIANS WAITING (6) are both in super form and head the other chances.

BACK: VYTIS (5) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: VYTIS (5), KYVALLEY MAVEN (7), FREIGHT SHAKER (8), SEBASTIANS WAITING (6)

Race 4:

OVERVIEW: This is the final of the GV Regional Trotters Cup, with horses qualifying from heats run at Cobram, Echuca and Shepparton. WITH APLOMB (13) has a difficult barrier to overcome, but she’s racing in super form for new trainer Steve Cleave and I loved her win to beat five rivals that reoppose in the lead-up at this track on January 6. She came with a three-wide run for the last lap to win softly on the line and she’s going well enough to do it again I fancy. ABBIE (9) won the first heat at Cobram and must be a serious danger, WALLIS (2) took the qualifier at Echuca thanks to a fast beginning to lead, while THE ITALIAN DREAM (4), HILLWINSOME (7) and I AM HARRO (11) can certainly figure.

BACK: WITH APLOMB (13) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: WITH APLOMB (13), ABBIE (9), THE ITALIAN DREAM (4), WALLIS (2)

Race 5:

OVERVIEW: IM BOBBY (2) can lay claim to being one of the state’s most improved horses through 2025, with a stunning rise through the ranks at the age of six. He had ARCEE PHOENIX’s (4) back in last weekend’s Maori Mile, but couldn’t get past him in the straight as they ran second and third behind the megastar Keayang Zahara. Don’t think there’s a heap between the two and the inside draw advantage gives James Herbertson the chance to go all the way from the front. ARCEE PHOENIX (4) is a multiple Group 1 winner and can definitely overcome the map, so expecting they’ll run the quinella in some order. GOTFEELINGSYOUKNOW (6) is clear third pick ahead of TWEEDLEDEE (1), who is showing some signs for new trainer Steve Alexandrou.

BACK: IM BOBBY (2) – 2 units (win)

SELECTIONS: IM BOBBY (2), ARCEE PHOENIX (4), GOTFEELINGSYOUKNOW (6), TWEEDLEDEE (1)

Race 6:

OVERVIEW: This is the final of the GV Regional Pacing Cup, with horses qualifying across five heats run at Cobram, Echuca and Shepparton. Very tricky race to assess, but happy to have the speedy SKYFALL BENCHMARK (4) on top. He was first-up when winning his qualifier at Cobram, and he did so in fast time. He might be able to power to the top and prove too slick over the sprint trip again. I OF THE HURRIKANE (9) is in great form for Carson Millar and nailed LEONARD (1) in the shadows of the post to win his heat at Shepparton, while MY LADY SARAH (7) is two for two this campaign and sat parked to claim another of the Shepp qualifiers. The chances don’t stop there and a field ticket in the Quaddie might not be the silliest idea.

SELECTIONS: SKYFALL BENCHMARK (4), I OF THE HURRIKANE (9), LEONARD (1), MY LADY SARAH (7)

Race 7:

OVERVIEW: The Shepparton Gold Cup might only have five starters, but what a mouth-watering match race this shapes to be between two of the biggest stars in the sport. KINGMAN (1) has a 2-0 head-to-head record over LEAP TO FAME (3), having beaten him in the Victoria Cup and New Zealand Cup in recent months. He was only fair first-up from a little break when third in last weekend’s Bendigo Cup after having a great run in the one-one, but reports were that trainer-driver Luke McCarthy wasn’t entirely happy with the horse after travelling down from New South Wales. He has stayed in Victoria this week and gets the chance to bounce back. Tactics will be fascinating here as KINGMAN (1) is expected to lead from gate one, with Grant Dixon then needing to make a decision on when he rolls around to sit parked with his champion LEAP TO FAME (3). While the recent battles and likely map say KINGMAN (1), I’m going to back in the Queensland hero in what should be a stirring final lap. There will likely be a gap back to third, which should be occupied by OUR LUCIANO (4).

SELECTIONS: LEAP TO FAME (3), KINGMAN (1), OUR LUCIANO (4), WESTERN SONADOR (5)

Race 8:

OVERVIEW: SMOKEN ACE (5) crossed CALEXICO (3) and LOUIE LOU I (4) two starts back at Melton and I fancy he can get the top here again. He charged late but missed CALEXICO (3) in that race on December 20 and was then narrowly run down by LOUIE LOU I (4) last time out at Cranbourne. The master James Herbertson gets back in the bike for this rematch and I’ll lean his way in what is a cracking contest. Tactics will be interesting, and CALEXICO (3) and LOUIE LOU I (4) can certainly win, while TANGO TARA (7) returns from a long injury lay-off with a couple of nice trials under his belt. He is definitely a winning factor.

SELECTIONS: SMOKEN ACE (5), CALEXICO (3), TANGO TARA (7), LOUIE LOU I (4)

Race 9:

OVERVIEW: There’s good wraps on QUATRO MOTH (7) and he is well fancied to continue an unbeaten start to his career. He won both starts as a two-year-old at Melton and Menangle, and is fancied to take this first-up assignment despite no public trial to work off. ATUA MAGIC (3) looks a serious danger, however, and warmed up for this with a first-up third in the listed Breeders Plate at Leeton on Boxing Day when he was forced to come wide on the small track for the last lap. He was a top two-year-old and ran third in the Group 1 Protostar in Queensland during July. A winner outside those would surprise, but ROCKY ROCKS (1) and SPRINGFIELD RIVER (2) look the prominent players for third.

SELECTIONS: QUATRO MOTH (7), ATUA MAGIC (3), ROCKY ROCKS (1), SPRINGFIELD RIVER (2)

Race 10:

OVERVIEW: If you’re looking to get out in the last, then best of luck to you. There’s not a lot of form to get excited about in recent times, but I’ve got a leaning to KEAYANG OMAR (5) who was only beaten 2m by the handy Emma Rox last weekend when coming from last. His efforts prior have been sound and he’s narrowly on top. There looks a bit of speed on the front line, so it could set up nicely for the sole back row runner SPIRIT OF SAHARA (8). He was unlucky not to win back in early December at Shepparton. HEZAFLASHONE (3) claimed his maiden in good style at Cobram and was very good when fourth last time out despite traffic problems, while OLLIES MEDAL (4) could be a sharp improver off the front line if he’s on his best behaviour. While they’re my top four, it’s hard to discount any of the eight.

SELECTIONS: KEAYANG OMAR (5), SPIRIT OF SAHARA (8), HEZAFLASHONE (3), OLLIES MEDAL (4)

 

The odds quoted on the fields page are a GoodForm generated price estimate based on a range of key form factors and are not necessarily the odds that may be offered by a licensed bookmaker.

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** A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10

 

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