Form Analysis by Darren Clayton
RACE ONE
Placed in both runs since returning to Qld, NELLIE JOY (8) should be further tightened following the last start 3rd when making a late play to be 5m from the winner LAIN. Chasing home MAJESTIC BREEZE when resuming, this looks to be within reach.
IGNITE (4) has been midfield at his past two starts, the latest when sitting in the trail and unable to find the podium as YSMIR arrived. Chasing that same winner the start prior, this looks a nice drop in grade from recent assignments and with the right start will loom in this line up.
ITZ TRIXTON TIME (6) was quickly into gait and making a forward march here last time off this same impost when working to the front. Fading late, another safe start can see him feature.
NO REMORSE (9) was making some good metres in the latter stages last time behind YSMIR. A winner from the 10m tape two starts back, he has podium claims again here.
SELECTIONS: NELLIE JOY (8), IGNITE (4), ITZ TRIXTON TIME (6), NO REMORSE (9)
SUGGESTED BET: NELLIE JOY (8) to win
RACE TWO
A tricky affair here, where last start Redcliffe winner, THE RIZZLER (5) can look to bring the form to the big deck. First up for the new stable with a half-neck 3rd from outside the second line at Marburg. Claiming a maiden win last time out with an impressive win, he can chase a repeat.
SON OF XENA (4) broke through for his maiden victory at just career start number two when dictating at the mile with a smart last 800 to post a 7m margin. Producing a smart trial since the first victory, he is fresh here but brings a fair share of talent to the contest.
VICTREE CHARLIE (6) has started from the inside gate at his past three starts, a barrier that does not suit his pattern. Placed in two of those, he can float off the arm here before rallying late.
CHERRIES ON TOP (7) put her opposition to the sword at Redcliffe last time out, pulling away and posting a 49m margin. With further benefit from that run where she was second up, she is in the mix from the tough draw.
SELECTIONS: THE RIZZLER (5), SON OF XENA (4), VICTREE CHARLIE (6), CHERRIES ON TOP (7)
SUGGESTED BET:
RACE THREE
A comfortable winner at his first appearance in the Sunshine State, MOONSHINER (8) was runner-up at his next three starts before going one better here last week with a 2m margin in recording a PB at his 3rd lifetime win. With the second line options, he can flex here.
JILLIBY GIDDEY (3) was second up from a spell last time out when asked to roll the sleeves and do it the tough way when 2m adrift of the winner MOONSHINER. Not a factor from outside the second line when resuming, the added fitness can see him throw it down here.
COUNTY COURT JUDGE (5) will be third up for this event following a last start 3rd behind MOONSHINER, finishing some 15m astern. The added fitness should assist his podium hopes.
OUR ULTIMTE MILLY (4) has placed at her past two starts, the latest when grabbing the bronze along the passing lane behind subsequent winner IDEAL BRONSKI. Limiting the early burn will be key.
SELECTIONS: MOONSHINER (8), JILLIBY GIDDEY (3), COUNTY COURT JUDGE (5), OUR ULTIMTE MILLY (4)
SUGGESTED BET: MOONSHINER (8) to win
RACE FOUR
Despite the wide gate from outside the front line, ULTIMATE ARK (6) might just have enough edge in the small field to capitalise. A winner from this same gate in a capacity field three starts back, he was strong to the line in grabbing the W. Not suited last start, this is winnable.
SPORTY ZARA (2) should take good benefit from her last start when resuming from a break. Striking trouble in the run from a wide gate, she was never a factor. With early options to potentially find the pocket trail, she can make a play for the prize.
SHES IN LINE (1) has been facing tougher assignments than that which she lines up against here. Not suited when shuffled back last start, she can be stalking and ready to strike.
SELECTIONS: ULTIMATE ARK (6), SPORTY ZARA (2), SHES IN LINE (1)
SUGGESTED BET: ULTIMATE ARK (6) to win
RACE FIVE
MAN OF ACTION (5) has not started here at The Creek since August but his recent efforts at Redcliffe suggest he can be a big player in an open contest. Forced to work in the run last start when sent forward to park out, he rattled from deep field for the bronze the start prior.
COULD IT BE ME (2) has been well supported at his past two starts but has missed the board in each. Asked to do it the tough way outside the leader last time, he was full of fight when finishing just 2m astern of the winner. Not to far away the start prior, he can challenge.
YOGI (9) will be third up for the new barn following a last start defeat when sent to the post as fav. Wide off the track in finishing just behind the placings, he can be chiming in here.
SAINT LOUIS BEAT (10) eased from gate 6 last time out over 2138 before attacking the line smartly to grab the silver. Despite a tricky gate, a return to the mile should assist his claims.
SELECTIONS: MAN OF ACTION (5), COULD IT BE ME (2), YOGI (9), SAINT LOUIS BEAT (10)
SUGGESTED BET: MAN OF ACTION (5) to win
RACE SIX
Sent hard off the gate last time out on The Triangle, SAN SABA (4) found the front and in control held off the challengers to record a 4m margin. Grabbing the bronze two starts back, this looks an open contest and with the right trip can challenge.
BORSELLINO (6) will be fresh up following his last start back in November when chasing forlornly as SON OF A SHARK sizzled in front in 1.50.9. Despite a tough gate, he can join in.
MERRY JEWEL (2) has placed at her past two starts, which have both been on this deck at this trip. Chasing home behind LITTLELIONELJAMES last start, she can get handy and chime in.
AUNTY FRANCES (3) has been hitting some good areas in recent outings, the latest when charging home to overcome gate 12 with a widening 8m victory. With early hustle, she has claims.
SELECTIONS: SAN SABA (4), BORSELLINO (6), MERRY JEWEL (2), AUNTY FRANCES (3)
SUGGESTED BET: SAN SABA (4) to win
RACE SEVEN
Connections were rewarded for their patience last time out when COMPETE (4) was able to produce his manners and take them all the way for a drought breaking win. Slapped with an ODM embargo, he has been responsible for some sectionally strong efforts from the tough gate. If he can build further confidence from last start, he will be hard to stop.
SUPA AMERICAN (6) should appreciate the drop back to the midweek circuit after featuring in metro company at his past three. Scoring a smart win three back when charging from the rear, last time he met much stronger company when chasing home CALL TO ORDER.
CREDULOUS (1)has placed in three of her past five starts, the latest when holding the bronze in a small field behind GLENEAGLE VEE CEE. The gate is a huge plus here.
LANAI (8) was having just his second run in six weeks when powering home over the top of them at this trip two starts back. Charging hard last time when just 2m from DAISY DIANA, he will be probing for openings.
SELECTIONS: COMPETE (4), SUPA AMERICAN (6), CREDULOUS (1), LANAI (8)
SUGGESTED BET: COMPETE (4) to win
RACE EIGHT
Beaten by a second line gate last start, the improved barrier for IDEAL DESIRE (2) presents the opportunity to provide trainer James Wanless with his first victory since making a comeback. Runner-up three starts back from the trail, the effort two back was tough, and this is within reach.
FAVREAU (9) was a Redcliffe winner two starts back when pressing forward to sit parked and grinding out a tough win. Wide off the track last start when unable to eat into the deficit, he can follow through early to get handy and issue a challenge.
WARRAWEE FLYER (1) should be able to take advantage of this gate which will produce the early options. Holding on for the bronze two starts back behind WAR CLUB, she has claims.
ABSOLUTELY STOKED (8) started inside the second line at Redcliffe two starts back when shuffle back before making some late metres for 2nd. A soft trip from this gate can see her feature.
SELECTIONS: IDEAL DESIRE (2), FAVREAU (9), WARRAWEE FLYER (1), ABSOLUTELY STOKED (8)
SUGGESTED BET: IDEAL DESIRE (2) to win
