Form Analysis by Craig Rail

Race 1:

 

OVERVIEW: MIDNITE DESIRE (6) held the lead from the pole position and was run down on the line when a close second behind Yella in a mile rate of 1.57.6 at Melton last outing. This race is of similar quality and he is capable of going one better. REALLY SMARTIE (10) settled in a rearward position and couldn’t work into the race when seventh ($3-30 fav) at Geelong last outing. He was placed at his three attempts prior and is worth another chance. FOUR LONELY NIGHTS (8) is awkwardly drawn on the inside of the second line but he appears to be well placed against this line up and has winning claims if he gains normal luck in running. SPUN SILVER (9) led throughout and recorded a mile rate of 1.58.0 at Geelong last week. She performs best when on the pace so the barrier draw is a disadvantage but she is worth thought again.

 

EARLY SPEED: 6 (likely leader), 2,3

SELECTIONS: MIDNITE DESIRE (6), REALLY SMARTIE (10), FOUR LONELY NIGHTS (8), SPUN SILVER (9)

RATINGS: 6/ 8,10/ 9/ 3/ 1,2

SUGGESTED BET: MIDNITE DESIRE (6) each way

 

Race 2:

 

OVERVIEW: LUCKY VINCENT (2) has been placed in three trials (1 win) at Melton and he is ideally drawn so he must be respected under these conditions. FROSTY DROP (7) raced without cover throughout and battled on well for third behind Harmony Halo at her debut. She should have improved by the experience and looms as one of the leading chances again. MATRIARCH DAISY (8) is a first starter for trainer Mick Vella, which has been placed in two trials at Melton in handy grade so she has the ability to figure in the finish. GINGER ELLA (5) settled three back on the markers and held her own when third at Shepparton last outing. Her trial form prior was sound so she is not without a chance.

 

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 5,7

SELECTIONS: LUCKY VINCENT (2), FROSTY DROP (7), MATRIARCH DAISY (8), GINGER ELLA (5)

RATINGS: 2,7/ 8/ 5/ 3,6,9

SUGGESTED BET: LUCKY VINCENT (2) to win

 

Race 3:

 

OVERVIEW: STAR RULER (5) led throughout to score in a mile rate of 1.57.5 at Melton last outing. This is a race of similar standard and he is a good chance of finding the lead again so he must be respected. OUR KINKY BOOTS (1) endured a tough run when fifth at Geelong last outing and is much better drawn for this assignment. She recorded a mile rate of 1.55.9 when she scored at the beginning of the season and that time would be more than competitive against this line up. AVEIRO (2) has been placed in four of his past five starts and is drawn to go well again. He raced without cover early before gaining a trail when third behind Littleblabbamouth at Stawell on Monday. SKYZ ABOVE (9) has won two of her past three starts and finished off strongly at her latest Ballarat victory. She should gain an economical run from the trailing draw and is worth thought again. 

 

EARLY SPEED: 5 (likely leader), 1,4

SELECTIONS: STAR RULER (5), OUR KINKY BOOTS (1), AVEIRO (2), SKYZ ABOVE (9)

RATINGS: 5/ 1,2,9/ 6/ 4

SUGGESTED BET: STAR RULER (5) to win

 

Race 4:

 

OVERVIEW: PISTOL QUEEN (6) took on a strong field and had little luck at Stawell on Monday, where she was checked early then had no luck in obtaining a secure passage in the home straight. She strikes a suitable assignment and is worth an investment. FREAK OUT (9) has been placed at his past two attempts against similar opposition and is worth thought again. WHITE POINTER (8) has performed well at his two starts back from a break and follows out behind the fast beginner ETIZ AMODEL (1) so he is worth a ticket each way. ETIZ AMODEL (1) gets her chance to improve on her numerical form while the fast beginners BLUE OCEAN (2) and RIVER PATROL (5) both are capable of showing up without surprising.  

 

EARLY SPEED: 5 (possible leader), 1,2

SELECTIONS: PISTOL QUEEN (6), FREAK OUT (9), WHITE POINTER (8), ETIZ AMODEL (1)

RATINGS: 6/ 8,9/ 1/ 2,5/ FIELD

SUGGESTED BET: PISTOL QUEEN (6) each way

 

Race 5:

 

OVERVIEW: CINQUANTA (3) will appreciate her best draw for some time and was runner up in a slick mile rate of 1.56.6 at Melton three starts ago so she should go well under these conditions. She dropped out to last from a wide draw and gained ground late when fourth behind Test of Fire (won again since) at Melton last outing. BEST BACK BRUCE (2) is a fast beginner and hasn’t enjoyed the best of luck at his most recent appearances. He should be prominent throughout from his good draw. ANIMADO (4) will appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment and is worth an investment. SPEEDY HEALEY (5) put together four straight victories in July/August and is worth thought despite having been placed once at his past five attempts. OUR TRUE COLOURS (6) is widely drawn but defeated a field of similar standard last outing and is worth thought again.

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 1,3,6,7

SELECTIONS: CINQUANTA (3), BEST BACK BRUCE (2), ANIMADO (4), SPEEDY HEALEY (5)

RATINGS: 3/ 2,4/ 5,6/ 1

SUGGESTED BET: CINQUANTA (3) each way

 

Race 6:

 

OVERVIEW: GOLDEN SKIES (1) continues to improve with the benefit of experience and finished off boldly when a close second behind Jetaway Saint last outing. She is likely to be headed off at the start from the pole position but she should be competitive against this line up. MOREEP (7) was slow to begin and made ground before breaking stride in the final 100m when unplaced at Cranbourne. She is still learning but she has ability is a winning chance if she delivers a fool proof display. JOEY BEE (9) is a maiden from 37 attempts but he has been confidently supported in several of his recent performances so an improved effort would not surprise. RATTLE MY CAGE (4) has had a win and a second at his past two Bacchus Marsh trial performances and has claims along with KYVALLEY JOYRIDE (6).

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 3,5

SELECTIONS: GOLDEN SKIES (1), MOREEP (7), JOEY BEE (9), RATTLE MY CAGE (4)

RATINGS: 1,7/ 9/ 4,6/ FIELD

SUGGESTED BET: GOLDEN SKIES (1) each way

 

Race 7:

 

OVERVIEW: IMA TERMINATOR (4) is a smart pacer, which is resuming since a fifth behind Seathestars at Melton in May. He will be fitter after three recent trial performances and finished gamely via the sprint lane at his latest second so he must be respected. TRIPLE ROCK SAINT (1) gains the perfect draw with the aid of a concession claim and will find this race to be easier than his recent performances so he must be considered as a winning chance. MY LITTLE BO (3) is a fast beginner and gave a bold showing in the Argent 3yo Classic, where she set up a genuine tempo. She was runner up in fast time prior and should be prominent throughout from her good draw. STEEL RULER (6) scored after trailing the leader at Melton last outing and is worth thought along with YAPPER (8), which should gain an economical run from his trailing draw behind TRIPLE ROCK SAINT (1).

 

EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 2,4

SELECTIONS: IMA TERMINATOR (4), TRIPLE ROCK SAINT (1), MY LITTLE BO (3), STEEL RULER (6)

RATINGS: 1,4/ 3/ 6/ 8/ 2,5,7

SUGGESTED BET: IMA TERMINATOR (4) each way

 

Race 8:

 

OVERVIEW: SURFE LA MER (8) is a classy 3yo filly, that has won three of her five starts for season. She gained a nice trail and finished off stylishly for a comfortable victory at Melton last outing and should prove hard to beat again. ALIFETIMEFORLIVING (6) looms as the logical danger. She finished off strongly when a close second behind Fearless Writer in a mile rate of 1.54.6 at Geelong last outing. LAMBRO MACH (2) hasn’t been at his best form since coming from South Australia but he was a multiple Classic winner last season and he possesses early speed so he is capable bouncing back into winning form. OWEN THE SAINTS (1) is likely to receive the perfect trip from the pole position and rates as a value hope.

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (likely leader), 1,5,6

SELECTIONS: SURFE LA MER (8), ALIFETIMEFORLIVING (6), LAMBRO MACH (2), OWEN THE SAINTS (1)

RATINGS: 6,8/ 2/ 1/ 3,4

SUGGESTED BET: SURFE LA MER (8) to win

 

Race 9:

 

OVERVIEW: FLOATING MOUNTAIN (4) is a fast beginner and is racing in fine form. He attempted to lead throughout when second at Melton last outing then finished off well from three back on the markers last outing. He is dropping back from a Ratings 55 Heat and Final series into this Rating 49 event so he appears to be well placed. MONTANA CHEVELLE (8) will also appreciate a drop back in class for this assignment and should go well. She led out then took cover when she scored over It’s Diamond Creek and Rakero Warrrior (won since) at Bendigo on August 13. MAORI FRANKLIN (1) galloped when in a striking position approaching the home turn when resuming then backed up with a victory against slightly easier grade at Melton. He is ideally drawn and is warrants consideration. MEGABAND (2), MAORI TATTOO (5) and JETAWAY SAINT (7) are all worth thought in multiple combinations.

 

EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 7

SELECTIONS: FLOATING MOUNTAIN (4), MONTANA CHEVELLE (8), MAORI FRANKLIN (1), MEGABAND (2)

RATINGS: 4/ 8/ 1,2/ 5,7

SUGGESTED BET: FLOATING MOUNTAIN (4) to win