Form Analysis by Jamie Cockshutt
Hobart 16th March
We head to Hobart on Sunday for a good ten event card with the second heat of the Tasmania Cup the highlight and it brings together a very good field.
Port Run Machine should get punters to a good start in the first with Daisypea running the exacta spot again.
Triple Vinnies can bounce back to winning form with a safe getaway in the fourth race.
Heza Punk Rocker is a very smart type resuming and should be winning the sixth.
The best value is Southern Luck in race nine and the best at odds is Starofremberance in race eight.
RACE 1: 16:07pm Prydes Easifeed Pace 1609m
The first of the afternoon is for the 2yo’s. PORT RUN MACHINE (6) was impressive winning last time leading throughout so will look to push forward and bully his way across so is the one to beat. DAISYPEA (5) didn’t shirk the task last time they clashed and should be improved so is the danger. HIGH BELIEVER (4) is on debut and has trialed well so will get every chance to run into a placing. SOLO SAFARI (1) draws the pole so will get every chance to sneak into some of the minor money.
TOP PICK: Port Run Machine (6) is the one they have to beat.
DANGERS: Daisypea (5) is the danger along with High Believer (4).
ROUGHIE: Solo Safari (1) is next best.
RATINGS: 6-5-1 4-2 3
SUGGESTED BET: Port Run Machine 5units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 6-5-1 4 $20 flexi 1000%
LIKELY LEADER: Port Run Machine will push forward with Daisypea.
RACE 2: 16:47pm Fehlbergs Produce Sprintlane Pace 2090m
This is a race for the 3yo and older maiden pacers. LEWICKI LEIS (3) has been knocking on the door and gets every chance the door will open tonight so is the one to beat. Stablemate ALWAYS A SHOWGIRL (4) creates a bit of interest first up in the State so watch for a positive market push. VINCENTS RAINBOW (6) has been ok at both local runs so despite the draw has to be included. SHADES OF SILK (1) and ILLTELLYOUSUMTHING (2) both get soft draws so can fill a minor placing.
TOP PICK: Lewicki Leis (3) is the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Always A Showgirl (4) is the danger along with Vincents Rainbow (6).
ROUGHIE: Shades of Silk (1) wouldn’t shock at odds.
RATINGS: 3-4 6-1 2 5
SUGGESTED BET: Lewicki Leis 3units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 3-4 6-1 2 4 6 $24 flexi 400% - 3-1 2 4 6-4 6 $12 flexi 200%
LIKELY LEADER: Lewicki Leis will look to work across those to his inside.
RACE 3: 17:22pm Ladbrokes Racing Club Pace 2090m
This is for the 64-74 rated pacers and the inform mare BEAT SWEET (4) will go around a short priced favourite and prove too classy for her rivals. THEE OLD BOMB (1) has been close up of late and draws ideally to get every chance to fill the exacta spot. DEMAND RESPECT (5) resumes and at his best will be around the mark so include along with WE SALUTE YOU (2) and MR BONDI (3) for the minor exotic placings.
TOP PICK: Beat Sweet (4) will be winning.
DANGERS: Thee Old Bomb (1) is the danger along with Mr Bondi (3).
ROUGHIE: We Salute You (2) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 4-1 3 5-2 6
SUGGESTED BET: Beat Sweet 6units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 4-1-2 3 5 $30 flexi 1000%
LIKELY LEADER: Beat Sweet will look to work across Thee Old Bomb early.
RACE 4: 18:00pm Light Harness Cup Two 2579m
This is the second heat of the Light Harness Cup where TRIPLE VINNIES (7) will be looking to do everything right as if he does he is clearly the one to beat. THE CHANCER (4) lead and knocked up last time so if happens to lob on top early to may take a sit and look to out dash them late. WATERMELON SUGAR (5) makes his way down form Qld so has to be kept safe as his best is good enough. PUNTARNO STRIDE (2), JEREMY WELLS (3) and DENWEN DANCER (8) are a trio to include for the wider exotic placings.
TOP PICK: Triple Vinnies (7) is the one to beat.
DANGERS: The Chancer (4) looks the danger along with Watermelon Sugar (5).
ROUGHIE: Puntarno Stride (2) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 7-4 5-2 3 8-1 6
SUGGESTED BET: Triple Vinnies 3units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 7-4 5-2 3 4 5 $24 flexi 400%
LIKELY LEADER: Puntarno Stride will be looking to ping on top early.
RACE 5: 18:35pm Morey’s Sports & Music Tours Pace 2090m
This is a race for the 3yo and older pacers. CLARE FAVOURITE (8) was beating at short odds last time after sitting parked so from the draw tonight will get a soft trip and only needs a gap to be in the finish. MISS DUTTON (7) resumes and will this easier than her past few so if can settle close enough will be in the finish. PHOTO FIRST (4) was well supported when winning easily first up and will be further improved so wouldn’t shock if goes back to back. ZEUS IMMORTAL (12) is a handy 3yo resuming and if his close to his best will be getting home hard. NOT YET MUM (9) finally broke through for a well deserved win and has drawn to get a good run through early so wouldn’t shock if goes back to back. IDEN REGAL WAVE (1) and PEANUT SUTTER (2) both draw well so have sneaky chances at odds.
TOP PICK: Clare Favourite (8) looks the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Miss Dutton (7) is the danger along with Photo First (4).
ROUGHIE: Zeus Immortal (12) will get to good odds and can win
RATINGS: 8-4 7 9 12-1 2-3 10 11-5 6
SUGGESTED BET: Clare Favourite 2units win- Zeus Immortal 1unit win
EXOTIC BET: Boxed trifecta 4 7 8 9 12 $30 flexi 50%
LIKELY LEADER: Photo First will look to work across early.
RACE 6: 19:10pm Ladbrokes Tasmania Cup Heat Two 2579m
This is the second heat of the Tasmania Cup and we see a few Victorian raiders headed by the Emma Stewart stable headed by HEZA PUNK ROCKER (8) who resumes after winning the 4yo Vicbred where he beat some quality types. He gets 10m but has the ability and more to overcome that so is the one to beat. OLIVER DAN (7) has an impressive record and does come off a second in 1:48 at Menangle so will be a huge player. HELLUVA (6) has raced in top company for a while now and hasn’t been disgraced so despite resuming his in the mix along with the likes of COLLECTIVE WORKS (1), JORGE STREET (5) and MAGICIAN (10).
TOP PICK: Heza Punk Rocker (8) is the one they have to beat.
DANGERS: Oliver Dan (7) is the danger along with Helluva (6).
ROUGHIE: Collective Works (1) can run a place with a safe getaway.
RATINGS: 8-7-1 5 6 10-4 9-2
SUGGESTED BET: Heza Punk Rocker 4units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 8-7-1 5 6 10 $20 flexi 500% - 8-1 5 6 10-7 $10 flexi 250%
LIKELY LEADER: Jorge Street can ping across early.
RACE 7: 19:45pm Smithawards Pace 2090m
Here we have a 53-57 rated affair and it’s a tough one. NO NUKES SKIPPER (3) got back into winning form last week in easier company so getting back to the frontline he can go back to back. ROCK THE TABLEAU (1) comes up with the perfect draw to give some cheek so include along with the likes of DONE WELL (8), WATCH IT HAPPEN (9), MONEYS NO ISSUE (10) and COOLANDCOLLECT (12) who all have winning claims if the breaks come their way in running. OUR MIKI DIVA (2) and SPOOKY GIRL (6) are a pair that can also run into a minor placing at odds.
TOP PICK: No Nukes Skipper (3) just leaning his way.
DANGERS: Rock The Tableau (1) is the danger along with Watch It Happen (9).
ROUGHIE: Spooky Girl (6) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 3-1 8 9 10-2 6 12-4 7-5 11
SUGGESTED BET: No Nukes Skipper and Rock the Tableau 2units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1 3-1 2 3 6 8 9 10 12-1 2 3 6 8 9 10 12 $42 flexi 50%
LIKELY LEADER: No Nukes Skipper will look to work across early.
RACE 8: 20:20pm Racing Connect Pace 1609m
This is a race for the up to 49 rated pacers. READY TO ROCK (5) looks to find a winnable race especially if can find the early lead over the sprint trip. MIKISPUR (2) will be fitter and gets a soft draw so is open to improvement and can figure. STAROFREMBERANCE (9) finds a race that suits and should get a good run through so wouldn’t shock. ALAPHILIPPE (8), LALIBELA (11), BEAST MODE (12) and CINOCAL JAMANE (13) are all capable if giving some cheek if the breaks come their way in running.
TOP PICK: Ready to Rock (5) looks hard to beat.
DANGERS: Mikispur (2) looks a danger along with Starofremberance (9).
ROUGHIE: Beast Mode (12) wouldn’t shock if ran a race at odds.
RATINGS: 5-2 8 9 11 12 13-10-1 4 7
SUGGESTED BET: Ready to Rock and Starofremberance 1unit win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 5 9-2 5 8 9 11 12 13-2 5 8 9 11 12 13 $30 flexi 50%
LIKELY LEADER: Ready to Rock will look to work across early.
RACE 9: 20:50pm Racing Connect Pace 1609m
This is a 58-63 with a small field to do battle where polemarker AXE AND DEEZ (1) looks the hardest to beat as should be able to hold up from the pole over the sprint trip. SOUTHERN LUCK (2) was a strong winner last time and should drop straight to leaders back and from there can win. SETTEBELLO (3) and MAJOR LESTER (5) have both been close up of late and will be again and wouldn’t shock if won. STIR ME UP (4) and BELIEVE IN FOREVER (6) round out the field and if they happen to go hard upfront they can get into the race late.
TOP PICK: Axe and Deez (1) is the one they have to beat.
DANGERS: Southern Luck (2) is the danger along with Major Lester (5).
ROUGHIE: Settebello (3) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 1 2-3 5-4 6
SUGGESTED BET: Southern Luck 2units win at the value.
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 1 2-1 2-3 5 $20 flexi 500%
LIKELY LEADER: Axe and Deez should be able to hold up.
RACE 10: 21:20pm Tasmanian Horse Transport Pace 2090m
The last of the night is for the 50-52 rated pacers and its another tough one. SPORTS WRACK (4) comes across from Victoria and finds a suitable race so looks to get his chance. MACH ANGELO (5) can win this if saved for the last crack at them so keep safe. GRIMSHAW BAY (1) has the speed to be on speed and that gives him every chance to fill a placing. RANIERI (2), ONEOFTHELADS (3) and FIVE STAR SHARK (6) round out the field but all have chances if the breaks come their way.
TOP PICK: Sports Wrack (4) is the hardest to beat.
DANGERS: Mach Angelo (5) looks a danger along with Five Star Shark (6).
ROUGHIE: Ranieri (2) is the best at odds.
RATINGS: 4-1 2 3 5 6
SUGGESTED BET: Sports Wrack 3units win
EXOTIC BET: Trifecta 4-field-field $20 flexi 100%
LIKELY LEADER: Sports Wrack and Oneofthelads will look to push forward and work across Grimshaw Bay.
