Form Analysis by Craig Rail

Race 1:

 

OVERVIEW: ROCKNALLOVERTHEWORLD (11) worked hard early then was shuffled back in the field mid-race when a big third behind Younggiftedandblack at Melton then followed with a Geelong victory in a slick mile of 1.54.1. He is poorly drawn but must be rated highly. STARZZZ DESTINY (8) follows out behind the handy beginner SPORTS WRACK (2) and finished off well for second behind Captain Maastricht last week. His overall form is strong and he should go well again. WOTDIDUSAAAY (12) was unsuited in a slowly run race at Cranbourne last week, where the leaders dashed home in a last half of 56.4 seconds. He is a strong staying type and performs best when he is close to the lead so he is worth another chance. There are many other chances in an open race to commence the night including SPORTS WRACK (2), THE IRON DUKE (4), ANOTHER NIEN (10) and HEAVENLY GIPSY (13)

 

EARLY SPEED: 3 (likely leader), 2,4,7

SELECTIONS: ROCKNALLOVERTHEWORLD (11), STARZZZ DESTINY (8), WOTDIDUSAAAY (12), ANOTHER NIEN (10)

RATINGS: 11/ 8,10,12/ 2,4,13/ 6,7/ 3

SUGGESTED BET: ROCKNALLOVERTHEWORLD (11) each way

 

Race 2:

 

OVERVIEW: SPYGLASS (9) has returned from a break in terrific form and should prove hard to beat again. He finished well for second behind Exotic Bushranger at Melton then sprinted exceptionally fast from midfield in a final quarter of 26.4 seconds to win very impressively at Wagga last week. SPIRIT OF ARION (3) is stepping up in class but he was giving the leaders a healthy start coming up to the bell lap and did very well to get the job done last week so he is capable of featuring prominently again. ARGGGHHH (6) finished off hard when a game second behind Jilliby Willow last week. He is poorly drawn but is back to his best form and is worth a ticket each way. HES CHARLIES ANGEL (5) raced without cover and fought on well for second behind SPYGLASS (9) last week. He has claims along with the fast beginners RAKERO SLAMMER (1) and WHERES SEGGY (2).

 

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 1,5

SELECTIONS: SPYGLASS (9), SPIRIT OF ARION (3), ARGGGHHH (6), HES CHARLIES ANGEL (5)

RATINGS: 9/ 3,6/ 1,2,5/ 4/ FIELD

SUGGESTED BET: SPYGLASS (9) to win

 

Race 3:

 

OVERVIEW: SKINNYDIP (9) was resuming since May when he settled ninth on the markers, was blocked for a run for the majority of the straight and had little luck for ninth (7m) behind Spirit of Arion last week. He is a smart horse when racing at his peak form and he should be fitter from that run so he appears to be a good value bet. ROCKNROLL WALLA (10) led out, took cover and used the sprint lane to win at Geelong last outing. He faces a negative swing in the barrier draw but he is versatile and should be competitive again. TILLY JAYNE (4) will appreciate a drop back in class on her latest sixth in the Victoria Oaks. All of her recent performances have been in either Super Series or Victoria Oaks events so she should improve on her numerical form under these conditions. BETA THAN LOVE (2) held his own in the straight when fourth in a slowly run race and a dash home last week. He is a value hope along with Young Bluey, which had no clear run last week.

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely early leader), 3,4,5,6

SELECTIONS: SKINNYDIP (9), ROCKNROLL WALLA (10), TILLY JAYNE (4), BETA THAN LOVE (2)

RATINGS: 9/ 4,10/ 2/ 6,7/ 5

SUGGESTED BET: SKINNYDIP (9) each way

 

Race 4:

 

OVERVIEW: The open class event appears to be a match between CANTFINDABETTORMAN (7) and BETTER ECLIPSE (8). BETTER ECLIPSE (8) hasn’t had much luck at his recent performances and was very brave when third in the Kilmore Cup. He couldn’t work into the race from the second half of the field in the Victoria Cup but sectionally, his effort was very good so he must be rated highly. CANTFINDABETTORMAN (7) struck trouble and lost his chance in the Smoken Up Sprint then appreciated the slightly easier grade at his past two big victories. He is versatile and will make his presence felt. TRIPLE EIGHT (6) did very well last week after being caught wide in the second half of the field in the early stages then progressing forward to race without cover. He is usually competitive against this class and is worth thought again. EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (1) was a strong winner against easier grade last outing and KOSIMO (3) has hit the line strongly at his past two attempts.

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (possible leader), 4,5

SELECTIONS: BETTER ECLIPSE (8), CANTFINDABETTORMAN (7), TRIPLE EIGHT (6), EXOTIC BUSHRANGER (1)

RATINGS: 7,8/ 6/ 1/ 2,3

SUGGESTED BET: BETTER ECLIPSE (8) to win

 

Race 5:

 

OVERVIEW: HESITATE (9) has had a string of unlucky performances recently but he has built up some confidence at the trials with several victories to his credit. He has been competing against the elite grade throughout the season and he is tough enough to figure in the finish. SAO PAULO SIMBA (3) backed up some very good trial performances with an effortless victory at his debut. He is meeting a much stronger field here but he appears to be an exciting prospect and he is likely to give another bold showing. SCHWARZ (5) is resuming since a fourth in the Sapling Stakes in May. He has had two handy trial runs recently for trainer Chris Romanidis for a win and a second behind SAO PAULO SIMBA (3) and he has returned to trainer Emma Stewart so he must be respected. GOLDEN TRIBE (1) is a strong pacer and has the early speed to be prominent throughout. He led throughout at a Geelong victory two starts ago then gave an impressive display at Hamilton.

 

EARLY SPEED: 1 (likely leader), 2,3,4,5

SELECTIONS: HESITATE (9), SAO PAULO SIMBA (3), SCHWARZ (5), GOLDEN TRIBE (1)

RATINGS: 3,9/ 5/ 1/ 2,7

SUGGESTED BET: HESITATE (9) each way

 

Race 6:

 

OVERVIEW: RAKERO REBEL (9) settled three back on the markers and produced a stunning burst of speed to win the Queen of the Pacific two weeks ago. She is clearly the class runner of the field and is the horse to beat again. SAHARA BREEZE (8) settled in a rearward position and was out very wide in the latter stages when unplaced in the Queen of the Pacific. She produced a big finish to down Soho Historia at her previous attempt and the drop back in distance is an advantage so she is worth another chance. JILLIBY WILLOW (7) trailed the leader and used the sprint lane when a close third in the Queen of the Pacific. She followed with a big win when coming from off the speed last week and she should be competitive again here. SEW WHAT (5) and YOUNGGIFTEDANDBLACK (6) are both worth thought in multiple combinations.

 

EARLY SPEED: 5 (possible early leader), 2,6,7

SELECTIONS: RAKERO REBEL (9), SAHARA BREEZE (8), JILLIBY WILLOW (7), SEW WHAT (5)

RATINGS: 9/ 7,8/ 5,6/ 2

SUGGESTED BET: RAKERO REBEL (9) to win

 

Race 7:

 

OVERVIEW: The Tatlow Stakes for the 2yo Fillies is a very interesting race with a debutante and several different form references to decipher. LILLY LOTUS (3) is a maiden from six starts but her past two runs in New South Wales have been sound including her latest second behind BONDI LASS (2) so she appears to be a value hope. SHARP INTEREST (1) and BONDI LASS (2) have both been in winning form and are perfectly drawn. LEAVITT (5) has only had one trial leading up to her debut and she was beaten by quite a margin in a moderate field when fourth at Bacchus Marsh. She has since been transferred to leading trainer Emma Stewart so she is sure to be strongly fancied. EVILEYE (10) endured a tough run and looked to be beaten on the home turn but came again in the straight when a brave third at Wagga last outing. She is poorly drawn but has claims in a race where the betting market will be the best guide, particularly with the debutante LEAVITT (5).

 

EARLY SPEED: 2 (possible leader), 1,5? 6

SELECTIONS: LILLY LOTUS (3), BONDI LASS (2), SHARP INTEREST (1), LEAVITT (5)

RATINGS: 3/ 1,2/ 5,10/ 4,6

SUGGESTED BET: LILLY LOTUS (3) each way

 

Race 8:

 

OVERVIEW: STORMRYDER (4) was a Group 1 winner as a juvenile and all of his five starts this season have been at feature level so he will appreciate this grade. He worked out of the gate, was shuffled back mid-race and finished solidly when seventh (8m) in the Victoria Derby at his latest attempt. OUR LUCIANO (2) finished eleventh in the Derby after settling down in last position from the extreme draw. He ran a cracking race for second in the Reg Withers Classic three starts ago and is much better drawn here so he must be considered as a winning chance. NATHAN STREET (5) raced fiercely and ended up finishing twelfth in the Derby. The drop back in distance is a definite advantage so he is worth another chance. The former New South Wales pacer COLLECTIVE WORKS (3) led throughout and trounced his rivals at his Victorian debut. This race is much harder but he was very impressive last time out.

 

EARLY SPEED: 4 (likely leader), 3

SELECTIONS: STORMRYDER (4), OUR LUCIANO (2), NATHAN STREET (5), COLLECTIVE WORKS (3)

RATINGS: 4/ 2,5/ 3/ 1,6

SUGGESTED BET: STORMRYDER (4) to win